ODAC Newsletter – Mar 23

Brent oil prices flirted with $125/barrel again this week before dropping back on news of weaker than anticipated European and Chinese industrial activity. The political and economic pressure of surging prices prompted Saudi oil minister Ali Al Naimi to claim the kingdom can raise production by 25% (2.5 mb/d) immediately if necessary. But that was in flat contradiction to his recent admission that 700mb/d of Saudi’s claimed 2.5 mb/d spare capacity could not be brought on stream in under 90 days – three times longer than the standard definition.

Tom Murphy Interview: Resource depletion is a bigger threat than climate change

Rising geopolitical tensions and high oil prices are continuing to help renewable energy find favour amongst investors and politicians. Yet how much faith should we place in renewables to make up the shortfall in fossil fuels? Can science really solve our energy problems, and which sectors offers the best hope for our energy future? To help us get to the bottom of this we spoke with energy specialist Dr. Tom Murphy, an associate professor of physics at the University of California. Tom runs the popular energy blog Do the Math which takes an astrophysicist’s-eye view of societal issues relating to energy production, climate change, and economic growth.

If only we had free energy

I thought I’d do a thought experiment. Suppose tomorrow morning a hypothetical university—let’s call it T.I.M.—sends out their weekly press release claiming a “revolutionary breakthrough” that will change the way we think about energy. Unlike every other time in the past decade they’ve made this claim, though, suppose this time it’s actually true: they’ve discovered a way of producing extremely cheap energy—as near to “free energy” as can be imagined.

Fun with Trends

If current energy trends continue . . .
  • By 2015 China will be importing more oil than the United States does that year.
  • By 2030 China will be absorbing all available global oil exports, leaving none for the US or Europe.
  • In just 8 years China will be burning as much coal as the entire world uses today.
  • Natural gas will be virtually free in the US by 2015.
  • Officially assessed US natural gas reserves will be exhausted by 2025.

World energy consumption since 1820 in charts

In this post, I provide…charts showing long-term changes in energy supply, together with some observations regarding implications. One such implication is how economists can be misled by past patterns, if they do not realize that past patterns reflect very different energy growth patterns than we will likely see in the future.

ODAC Newsletter – Mar 16

Finally, a plausible explanation for the Obama-Cameron political orgy — ‘love-in’ doesn’t quite do it — in Washington this week. For Cameron the benefit of this floorshow was obvious — like Blair with Bush, revelling in the reflected glory of US power — but Obama’s motive remained a mystery. What could possibly justify gifting all that folderol and face time with the world’s most powerful man? Yesterday we got the answer: international cover for a politically motivated release from strategic petroleum reserves, that’s what.

Home Heating for the Hardy

If you are on-board with the sentiment that we should strive to reduce the amount of energy we consume as a means to relieve pressure on a world suffering impending energy scarcity, then you probably want to know how one might proceed. In this post, I will describe the single-biggest energy-saving strategy I have employed in my home in the past five years, which slashed my natural gas consumption by almost a factor of five.