‘Rogue states’ and the necessity of oil
Sudden drops in world oil supplies have a way of focusing the mind. I discuss the abrupt U-turn in American policy toward Venezuela and Iran in this week’s post.
Sudden drops in world oil supplies have a way of focusing the mind. I discuss the abrupt U-turn in American policy toward Venezuela and Iran in this week’s post.
No one can say for certain whether current tensions between the United States and Iran will spiral into war. But remember: When they tell you it’s not about oil (and natural gas), you can be certain that these resources are at the center of American motives. Absent these resources it would be difficult to understand the United States’ decades-long obsession with Iran.
Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have been peaking in the last 3 years 2016-2018 at around 22.3 mb/d. That was before the US sanctions on Iran were tightened in the 1st half of 2019.
With Donald Trump’s decision to shred the Iran nuclear agreement, announced last Tuesday, it’s time for the rest of us to start thinking about what a Third Gulf War would mean. The answer, based on the last 16 years of American experience in the Greater Middle East, is that it won’t be pretty.
A mid-week update.
A weekly update, including:
•Oil and the global economy
•The Middle East
•The IEA’s forecast
•Quote of the week
•Briefs