Energy Infrastructure

Calculating calamity: Japan’s nuclear accident and the “antifragile” alternative

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It is irresponsible to ask people to rely on the calculation of small probabilities for man-made systems since these probabilities are almost impossible to calculate with any accuracy. Natural systems that have operated for eons may more easily lend themselves to the calculation of such probabilities. But man-made systems have a relatively short history to draw from, especially the nuclear infrastructure which is no more than 60 years old. Calculations for man-made systems that result in incidents occurring every million years should be dismissed on their face as useless.

As nuclear falters, here is a practical, affordable (and safe) clean electricity plan

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In the wake of the Japanese nuclear debacle, we need a practical and affordable clean electricity plan that does not rely on new nuclear power. This article presents just such a Plan. New nuclear is absent from the Plan not because of any safety concern, but simply because it fails the “practical and affordable” test. President Obama called for “80% Clean Energy” by 2035. This Plan presents how we can do it right.

How black is the Japanese nuclear swan?

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We need to evaluate the potential for a nuclear future in light of the disaster in Japan. This was not unpredictable, and should have been accounted for in any realistic assessment of nuclear potential. It cannot realistically be described as a black swan event.

Human behaviour can easily turn what should be a one in one hundred thousand reactor-year event in to something all too likely within a human lifespan. Nuclear power may allow us to cushion the coming decline in fossil fuel availability, but only at a potentially very high price. (Excerpts)

Review: Disaster on the Horizon by Bob Cavnar

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It’s been nearly six months since BP Plc.’s runaway oil well in the Gulf of Mexico, which caused the largest unintentional offshore spill on record, was finally deemed “effectively dead.” And those six months have brought almost as many books on the disaster. Cavnar’s book has a particular ring of authenticity, and I suspect that’s because he’s the only one of the above authors to have spent a career in the oil and gas drilling business.

Eventually we’ll have unlimited cheap clean energy. But that will not help us or our kids.

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Summary: Optimists about energy give glowing forecasts of new technologies, often with wildly underestimated estimates of when when these can generate substantial fractions of our energy. In the real world technologies take decades to evolve from the laboratory to commercialization. And then building new energy sources on a large scale takes decades. Here we sketch out realistic timelines.

Excessive optimism is our enemy, with Coal-to-liquids as a case study

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Confidence provides strengths for a society, but only when coupled with clear vision. Unfortunately modern America too-often too often sees the future only in terms of doomsters’ pessimism and advocates’ optimism. Here we have a case study of the latter. Coal-to-liquids will not be cheap oil. It’s one part of the solution for the next several generations. Not the largest part, and certainly not a panacea.

Gas frackers attack fiery documentary

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In a world where tap water is catching fire near hydrofracking sites from Colorado to New York State, natural gas drillers say it’s not their fault. And when the provocative documentary GASLAND got an Oscar nod in January, the drillers were livid. But whether you believe the film is inspired expose or a putrid pile of propaganda, it may be a villain who doesn’t even make an appearance in the story — resource depletion — that winds up bursting today’s gas bubble.

Brave new world fuelled by clean economical energy possible and imperative by 2050

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All of the world’s energy needs could be provided cleanly, renewably and economically by 2050, according to a major new study by WWF. Two years in preparation, The Energy Report breaks new ground with its global scope and its consideration of total energy needs including transport, and making adequate and safe energy available to all.