Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
1.9 million. 13 trillion. 10 billion. These are the numbers that jumped off the page when I read PCI Fellow David Hughes’s latest “shale reality check ” report on the U.S. government’s forecasts of domestic oil and gas production.
Last week, Post Carbon Institute published Hughes’ analysis of the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2017, which found that the EIA’s forecast for shale gas and tight oil production through 2050 was “extremely optimistic.”
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy is about to release its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2018, with forecasts for American oil, gas, and other forms of energy production through mid-century. As usual, energy journalists and policy makers will probably take the document as gospel.
The EIA has once again undercut its previous estimates for U.S. oil production, offering further evidence that the U.S. shale industry is not producing as much as everyone thinks.
After closely reviewing the AEO2016, David Hughes raises some urgent questions about EIA’s U.S. shale gas forecasts…
Hughes’ recent findings point to not only increasingly overstated forecasts by the EIA, but also increasingly volatile assessments – both of which are highly troubling.
U.S. shale’s possibilities may seem endless, but the low hanging fruit in terms of efficiency and costs savings has been picked and therefore current discoveries might not be so prolific.
Another year, another U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) assessment report that makes the agencies own forecasters look foolish.
