Consumption & Demand

The fate of new truths: peak oil appears on “Nature”

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With the publication of a prominent article on “Nature” in January 2012, the concept of “Peak Oil” has made another step forward in the debate on resource depletion. This article has made me rethink of the past ten years of work that I did as a member of ASPO, the association for the study of peak oil. Were we right with our prediction of impending peak oil? In a sense, yes, but the crystal ball is always foggy and it cannot be otherwise. The ASPO predictions were basically right but, as all predictions, they were approximate.

Experiencing an energy audit

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Last week, I had an audit of our house’s energy use done and I wanted to share a few impressions of the process. Partly I hope to inspire a few readers to do the same, and partly I figure some of my readers know a lot more about this than me and can answer some of my questions.  The audit was performed by Jon Harrod of Snug Planet, a local energy efficiency firm here in the Ithaca area of upstate New York.

After the gold rush: A perspective on future U.S. natural gas supply and price (updated February 9)

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On January 23, 2012, Chesapeake Energy announced that it would curtail drilling in shale gas plays in the United States. Subsequently, other operators have followed suit. While the outcome of this announcement is unclear, it is a signal that the industry is in distress. One can argue that this distress stems from a lack of discipline as market price began to decline.

Economist calls gateway pipeline an inflationary ‘threat’

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In a detailed analysis submitted to the National Energy Board, Robyn Allan, the former president and CEO of the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia, concludes that “Northern Gateway is neither needed nor is in the public interest.” Moreover the project, if built, would raise the price of every oil barrel by $2 to $3 dollars in Canada over the next 30 years, and thereby create an inflationary price shock that would have “a negative and prolonged impact… by reducing output, employment, labour income and government revenues.”

Will peak oil spell the end of capitalism? (review of Fleeing Vesuvius)

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The basic theme of Fleeing Vesuvius, which is aimed at the growing sustainability movement, is TEOTWAWI (The End of the World as We Know It). The title refers to the volcano that destroyed Pompeii in 79 AD, specifically the large number of residents who failed to save themselves, despite weeks of earthquakes, gaseous clouds and other obvious signs that an eruption was imminent. For more than a decade, a growing body of evidence suggests that the planet is on the verge of economic and ecological collapse. Yet the vast majority of us do absolutely nothing to prepare for the stark conditions ahead.

Gas boom goes bust

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The current boom in drilling for ‘unconventional’ gas has helped raise US production to levels not seen since the early 1970′s. This has been an incredible boon to consumers and has kept spot prices contained below $5 per million BTU for the past year, recently dropping below $3/mmbtu. Unfortunately, this price is below the cost of production for many of these new wells. When the flood of investment currently pouring into natural gas drilling operations dries up, the inevitable bust will be as scary as the boom was exciting.

Energy – Feb 3

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– Science: Live Chat: Peak Oil—Is the Well Running Dry? (NEW)
– Michael Lynch: The Unfounded Fear of the ‘Peak Oil’ Monster
– Science: Technology Is Turning U.S. Oil Around But Not the World’s
– Once, men abused slaves. Now we abuse fossil fuels
– Thomas Homer-Dixon: Our peak oil premium
– The End of Elastic Oil
– Power paradox: Clean might not be green forever
– How Much Energy Does Energy Efficiency Save?

Nuclear Fusion

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Ah, fusion. Long promised, both on Do the Math and in real life, fusion is regarded as the ultimate power source—the holy grail—the “arrival” of the human species. Talk of fusion conjures visions of green fields and rainbows and bunny rabbits–and a unicorn too, I hear. But I strike too harsh a tone in my jest. Fusion is indeed a stunningly potent source of energy that falls firmly on the reality side of the science fiction divide—unlike unicorns. Indeed, fusion has been achieved (sub break-even) in the lab, and in the deadliest of bombs. On the flip side, fusion has been actively pursued as the heir-apparent of nuclear fission for over 60 years. We are still decades away from realizing the dream, causing many to wonder exactly what kind of “dream” this is.

Computing in the Long Emergency

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Where will computing go in the coming years? I thought I should find out, so I watched a roundtable and other talks and interviews on the subject (warning: it’s pretty dry stuff). I came away underwhelmed. I struggled to figure out what these guys were seeing that I wasn’t. I’m not sure I’ve figured it out. Eventually I came back to the one key issue that’s missing from their roundtable conversation—and that of most conversations among engineers in the computing world—limits, both ecological and material.

Enemies of the State

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As long as we allow proponents of unconventional oil and gas to claim a false choice between energy and economic security and the environment, and as long as we allow them to vilify opponents as being somehow unpatriotic or radical, we run the very real risk of losing a battle where the future of our planet and species is at stake. Ok, so maybe I am being a little bombastic. But am I wrong?