Ed. Note: This post was published on Joel’s blog on December 24, 2024.
This is the fourth in an occasional series on the transition from Biden to the incoming Trump administration—the early days.
When I last wrote that Washington in transition was a chaotic—even surreal—political environment, I had no idea just how weird things would get. The week was dominated by frantically frustrating attempts by House Speaker Johnson to keep the government open—as it was about to run out of money.
This week’s drama, involving House Speaker Johnson (R-LA), Elon Musk, President-elect Trump, and the cast of characters in the Republican House conference, offers insights into what might be expected in the first days of a second Trump presidency. It won’t be pretty, and it’s likely to add to concerns that Republicans can’t govern and that the divisions within and between the parties won’t be healed anytime soon.
For most of the past quarter century, the federal government has operated under a series of last-minute legislation called Continuing Resolutions (CR). As polarization has grown, so has Congress’ inability to pass legislation in the regular course of business.
Continuing resolutions are meant to give any Congress and White House a bit of extra time to pass annual federal budget legislation. CRs were never intended to be a substitute for the normal course of congressional business—budgeting, appropriating, and authorizing the expenditure of taxpayer dollars for the needs of the nation.
As wielded these days, CRs are white flags—admissions that the 535 members of Congress and the occupant of the White House can’t manage the most basic task of governance. CRs technically allow the government to do what it’s doing at the appropriation level that was last passed through legislation. Admittedly, some changes can be made—but not many.
At the beginning of this last week of the 118th Congress, it was anticipated that it would pass one last CR to carry the government into the first couple of months of the Trump administration and a Republican-controlled House and Senate. As is often the case, the critical passage of a CR is used to attach other must-pass items.
In this case, there was a need to refill the coffers of disaster agencies bled dry by Hurricanes Milton and Helene ($110 billion), provide financial assistance to farmers, and extend the expiration date of critical agricultural-related legislation that the parties couldn’t agree on during the congressional term.
It all seemed business as usual as of Wednesday (12/18/2024). The schedule called for passage in time to avoid having to close the government at 12:01 on December 21. Negotiations had taken weeks just to reach the temporary patch.
No one on Capitol Hill wanted to stick around for the holidays. The 118th Congress could close out its term, and the 119th Congress could begin on January 3, 2025. Then it happened.
Elon Musk started beating his chest, calling the bipartisan agreement “criminal” and encouraging his 220 million followers to express their displeasure to their representatives—asking them to torpedo the bill. Eventually, Trump got into the act. He demanded that any CR also raise or eliminate the national debt ceiling.
The ceiling is just what the name implies. It sets a limit on the government’s “credit line.” Although Congress always raises the credit line when it looks to impede the business-as-usual workings of the federal government, the principle involved, i.e., there should be limits on government debt, is a central theme of the arguments of conservative budget hawks.
True to form, Musk didn’t check some of his facts very well. He inaccurately claimed that members were giving themselves a 40-percent raise, funds were to go to a bioweapons lab, and federal taxpayer dollars would be spent on a new stadium for the National Football League’s Washington Commanders. He further threatened that:
“Any member of the House or Senate who votes for this outrageous spending bill deserves to be voted out in 2 years!”
When the dust finally settled, the House and Senate beat the clock—passing what would initially have passed had Musk and Trump not introduced their chaotic demands at the 11th hour. The drama will be repeated in March when the just-passed CR expires. (It should be noted that the appropriations battle is about the current fiscal year, which ends September 30, 2025.)
This week’s episode of Trump’s transition tele novella offers insights into what can be expected in Washington as Trump takes a second bite of the presidential apple. As I read the room, this is some of what I see:
I. Musk and Trump remain BFFs. Musk threw a spanner in the works with his avalanche of X messages trolling the deal that Speaker Johnson made with House Democrats. It appeared Trump was content with Johnson’s initially negotiated agreement–until Musk chimed in. After which, Trump was heard to say: “Ya, what he said.”
It looks like Trump finds Musk a useful advance man who can test waters with various concepts and do things Trump can’t. It makes Trump look like the reasonable one. How long can two such large egos occupy the same space is the question?
Trump demanded the CR also contain language that either did away with the debt ceiling or suspended it until after he left office. The former and future president is aware that the extension of his 2017 tax credits will substantially add to the national deficit and that he’s likely to encounter resistance from within the GOP Capitol Hill conferences.
Trump believed that adding the suspension to the CR would allow him to blame Biden for the change. There’s substantial opposition to raising the debt ceiling in House Republican conference.
It’s clear from the past week’s maneuvering that there are enough conservative budget hardliners to make Speaker Johnson and President Trump’s lives miserable. It’s a stark counterpoise to the expressed willingness of congressional Republicans to give Trump whatever he wants.
II. Speaker Johnson’s leadership is being called into question. Just days ago, it seemed that Johnson had the full backing of the president-elect and that the most MAGA-aligned of the Republican conference—many of whom are members of the contentious conservative House Freedom Conference.
Now, Johnson’s grip on the gavel has been weakened. The speaker did most of his negotiating on the first CR with the Democrats—failing to keep his members in the loop. It wasn’t a savvy political move.
Although much of what was in the first bill ended up in the final legislation, the last-minute fire drill did earn the America First agenda some concessions. Concessions that may prove impossible to make good on and will lead to even fiercer fights within Republican ranks.
According to POLITICO:
“House Republican leaders proposed a commitment to raising the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion early in 2025. GOP leaders would pair that with a $2.5 trillion cut in “mandatory” spending.”
To make good on the handshake promise, Republicans will have to cut spending on “mandatory programs,” including Medicaid, Social Security, SNAP nutrition assistance, Medicare, and welfare payments to the Americans most in need. They plan to do it through the budget reconciliation process discussed in Essay 3 of the current View from Washington series.
Trump has promised no cuts in Medicare or Social Security. How the conflict is resolved will be telling about who’s in charge. Musk supports changes in those and other social safety net policies critical to many core MAGA voters.
Reducing the funding for these programs will not be easy and carries considerable electoral risk and responsibility that President-elect Trump will be loath to take on. Should the cuts not make it into one or the other of the two reconciliation bills now being discussed, it would further fracture the already tenuous unity of congressional Republicans.
The culprit here is how conservatives view compromise. Remember that Johnson became speaker after the far-right wing of the House conference ousted former Speaker McCarthy (R-CA) for the high crime of bipartisanship.
The problem for Johnson is the razor-thin GOP House majority. At the start of the 119th Congress, the Republicans will have a House majority of one. Once the spots of representatives going into the Trump administration are filled, the majority will grow to five seats—which is “the smallest margin of control in modern history.” There will come a point when 20 or 30 House hardliners will dig their heels in closing the government down to make their point.
Trump has always been cavalier about closing down the government. He had few qualms about it in his first term—having overseen the longest government shutdown in history over the border wall. Neither he nor Musk were opposed to a shutdown over the last kafuffle.
III. Chaos, drama, revenge—and capitulation will be the watchwords in the early days of the 119th Congress and the Trump 2.0 presidency—unifiers need not apply.
Assuming that House Republicans can get through their leadership issues, the first orders of business in the House will be putting forward a swarm of bills in support of Trump’s America First agenda. Decisions need to be made about the number, order, and contents of the reconciliation bills that are expected to be the primary vehicles for the passage of Trump’s policies.
Sharp differences—almost resentments—exist within the Republican ranks on both sides of Capitol Hill. Historically, the Senate is supposed to be the more deliberative of the two bodies—and the most likely to support bipartisanship. I think this continues to hold. It is not to say bipartisanship is the preferred motus of either chamber, however.
Policies aside, the thin majorities mean that in most cases, the only substantive legislation that’s going to be passed will need some Democratic buy-in. It will come at a price for GOP leadership and Trump’s America First agenda.
It’s not easy being the majority party with so few votes to spare.
It’s easy to focus only on the big noises of the day without much attention to other things. However, I would be remiss not to mention some of them and what they might say about the term of the 119th Congress and the Trump White House.
The Senate will be faced with confirming Trump’s nominees. The president-elect has been nominating his executive branch team at record rates. There’s a feeling in Washington that he will get many of his candidates confirmed despite glaring questions of character and competency. (See here for more discussion.)
Tides seem to be turning for RFK, Jr as Secretary of Health and Human Resources despite his shortcomings, according to both conservatives and moderates. It’s possible that Hegseth, a former FOX News personality, may also be receiving a softer—if not warmer—reception. Trump continues to stand by him—at least for the moment.
Another message the turning tides might be carrying is that GOP senators know they’ll be denying Trump some of his signature promises, e.g., full extension of his 2017 tax credits, and are looking to soften the blow by looking the other way on some of his appointments. A fair number of policy areas will be easy for both Hill Republicans and the president-elect to agree on. Among them will be environmental (de)regulation.
Easy targets of opportunity to show that Trump and Capitol Hill Republicans mean business when it comes to supporting fossil fuels present themselves on Day 1 of both the new Congress and the second Trump presidency. On the congressional side, expect joint resolutions to cancel climate-related regulations finalized by the Biden administration within the last 60 legislative days of the 118th Congress.
The authority for the repeals will be the Congressional Review Act (CRA). The Act requires the passage of a joint resolution of disapproval (by simple majorities) and the signature of the president. Many of Biden’s last-minute efforts to Trump-proof his environmental legacy will be vulnerable, e.g., California waiver under fuel efficiency standards, under the CRA.
At the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, President Trump will leave his swearing-in ceremony for the Oval Office where he will rescind most—if not all—of President Biden’s climate-related executive orders—directing agencies to draft all the necessary regulations to make that happen.
As was the case during the first Trump administration, look for dozens of lawsuits over agency actions. It’s critical to note that in many cases, repealing a rule requires a new—several year-long process—rulemaking. I’ll be writing more on this once I have a better idea of the what and how the new administration plans to go about it.
A final note on House and possible Senate tactics “wokist” efforts to take over corporate boards in the name of sustainability. Attacks on ESG investments will continue to be made at the federal (as well the red state) level. On the way out of town, the House Judiciary Committee released an interim report titled: “Sustainability Shakedown: How a Climate Cartel of Money Managers Colluded to Take Over the Board of America’s Largest Energy Company.”
According to a committee press release,
The interim report reveals how a cartel of the world’s largest financial institutions and climate activists colluded through climate alliances and initiatives to replace the ExxonMobil Corporation’s board members after they refused to make a series of climate pledges.
Evidently, such things are no longer to be tolerated in Trump’s America. It’s something to think about.
