Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre at nef dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.
Fears that Spain may be heading for a bailout, weaker than anticipated US growth, and signs that China is not about to embark on any major fiscal stimulus saw oil prices drop again sharply on Wednesday. May has now seen the biggest monthly oil price drop since December 2008. Should the decline continue we will soon be in territory which makes the marginal, more costly to produce barrel uneconomic.
Uneconomic production of shale gas in the US due to oversupply has been forcing companies to cut back operations. Nonetheless a global dash for gas appears to be on the cards as other countries look to create their own energy revolution, and on the back of increasingly successful energy company lobbying to class gas as a low carbon fuel. This week the IEA released what it calls ‘Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas’. The rules are focused on “winning public confidence” for the industry “by exemplary performance”. The “golden age” would however be very short-lived given that even the regulated scenario gives emissions projected to lead to a global temperature rises of above 2oC. IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol said “it is definitely not the optimum path.” “The optimum path would be to see more renewables, more efficiency and more low carbon technologies” — yet a push for gas, which fits the existing centralized energy supply model, is likely to pull investment away from all of the above.
In the UK this week Energy Secretary Ed Davey was defending the draft Electricity Market reform bill from criticism by George Monbiot via a letter to The Guardian. The main point of contention was that the bill sets out a power station emissions limit of 450 grams of CO2 for every kilowatt-hour of electricity — a level which is actually higher than modern gas stations produce today. The accusation is then that despite commitments to decarbonise the electricity supply the government has left the barn door open for new unabated gas, and also coal via a loophole in the carbon capture and storage requriements. Davey’s defence is that new gas is needed because the transition will take time. Well, it certainly will – if we start building gas fired power stations and declaring they can operate unabated for their full lifespan of forty years.
Disclaimers
Oil
Oil Caps Biggest Monthly Drop in More Than Three Years
Oil capped the biggest monthly drop in more than three years on speculation that slowing U.S. growth and Europe’s debt crisis will reduce fuel demand.
Futures decreased 1.5 percent after more Americans applied for jobless benefits and the nation’s gross domestic product expanded more slowly than estimated. Fitch Ratings downgraded eight Spanish regions’ credit, stoking concern the crisis will force lenders to bail out of the country. A government report showed U.S. crude supplies rose to a 22-year high…
BP plans to sell stake in TNK-BP
BP plans to sell its stake in TNK-BP, its Russian joint venture where it is at loggerheads with its oligarch partners, after receiving “unsolicited” interest in its 50pc stake.
The shock move would represent an exit from a company that accounts for 29pc of BP’s production and last year contributed $3.7bn in dividends to BP’s coffers…
Ottawa considers high-altitude drones for Arctic surveillance
The federal government is considering a proposal to buy at least three high-altitude, unmanned aerial vehicles in what could be an attempt to salvage its Arctic sovereignty ambitions.
The pitch was made by U.S. defence contractor Northrop Grumman Corp. and involves modifying its existing Global Hawk drone, which can operate at 20,000 metres, to meet the rigours of flying in the Far North…
Iraq Starts First Auction Of Oil, Gas Exploration Rights
Iraq failed to attract partners for all three natural-gas blocks it offered on the first day of an auction of exploration licenses, awarding rights to only one of the six oil and gas areas put up for bidding.
Kuwait Energy Co., Dragon Oil Plc (DGO) and Turkiye Petrolleri AO won a license to explore for crude in a plot along the Iranian border, Oil Ministry officials said in Baghdad yesterday, the country’s first sale of energy-exploration rights since the 2003 ouster of Saddam Hussein. The two-day auction of rights to 12 blocks resumes today…
Gas
World to gain from gas glut if regulation right
A boom in unconventional natural gas over the next 20 years could see the United States and others benefit from cheaper energy while the importance of the Middle East declines, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
Growth in shale and other newly available forms of natural gas in the United States and China could match gains made in conventional gas in Russia, the Middle East and North Africa combined, IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol told Reuters in an interview…
Shale gas strategy ‘not the optimum path’: Fatih Birol
An energy strategy without fossil fuels would be preferable to the regulated gas pathway outlined in the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s new report, the paper’s own author told EurActiv in an exclusive interview yesterday (30 May).
An increase in unconventional gas production would be “a good move if it replaces coal,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist said at the launch of ‘Golden rules for the Golden Age of Gas’ in Brussels, “but it is definitely not the optimum path.”…
Using shale gas over coal does not help climate, says big gas investor
Using shale gas instead of coal does nothing to help the climate, one of the biggest investors in gas has said, because shale gas companies are failing to use simple technology to fix leaks of a potent greenhouse gas.
Switching from coal to shale gas is supposed to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, because gas produces less carbon than coal when burned. The difference in emissions has been the chief basis for claims by the gas industry that this new form of gas represents a “green” shift that will help to tackle climate change…
Gas rebranded as green energy by EU
Energy from gas power stations has been rebranded as a green, low-carbon source of power by a €80bn European Union programme, in a triumph of the deep-pocketed fossil fuel industry lobby over renewable forms of power.
In a secret document seen by the Guardian, a large slice of billions of euros of funds that are supposed to be devoted to research and development into renewables such as solar and wave power are likely to be diverted instead to subsidising the development of the well-established fossil fuel…
PetroChina Needs Time On Shale Gas, Looks Abroad: Energy
PetroChina Co. (857) may take five years to figure out ways to unlock the world’s largest natural-gas reserves trapped in shale rock, meaning China must keep buying overseas energy assets to fuel the second-biggest economy.
“We still have a long way to go in turning possible shale resources into recoverable reserves,” Zhou Mingchun, chief financial officer at China’s largest oil and gas company, said in an interview in Beijing. PetroChina will pursue energy assets “wherever and whenever they become available.”…
Renewables
Germany sets new solar power record, institute says
German solar power plants produced a world record 22 gigawatts of electricity per hour – equal to 20 nuclear power stations at full capacity – through the midday hours on Friday and Saturday, the head of a renewable energy think tank said.
The German government decided to abandon nuclear power after the Fukushima nuclear disaster last year, closing eight plants immediately and shutting down the remaining nine by 2022…
Spain Ejects Clean-Power Industry With Europe Precedent: Energy
Spanish renewable-energy companies that once got Europe’s biggest subsidies are deserting the nation after the government shut off aid, pushing project developers and equipment-makers to work abroad or perish.
From wind-turbine maker Gamesa Corp. Tecnologica SA (GAM) to solar park developer T-Solar Global SA, companies are locked out of their home market for new business. These are the same suppliers that spearheaded more than $69 billion of wind and solar projects since 2004 that today supply more than 50 percent of Spain’s power demand on the most breezy and sunny days…
UK
Britain’s climate change policy is going up in smoke
Energy policy in the United Kingdom looks like a jam factory hit by a meteorite: a multicoloured pool of gloop studded with broken glass. Consider these two press releases, issued by the Department of Energy and Climate Change last week.
Tuesday: the government’s new energy bill will help the UK to “move away from high carbon technologies”. Wednesday: applications for new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea have “broken all previous records”. This is “tremendous news for industry and for the UK economy”…
The price is right to tackle climate change
George Monbiot mistakes short-term methods for long-term goals. The coalition is fully committed to cleaning up our electricity supply and meeting our climate change targets — but it will take time. We have policies to support clean energy, reduce emissions and encourage energy-saving. But we need a diverse energy portfolio to keep the lights on while we develop low-carbon energy sources. Natural gas is part of that portfolio; it is cleaner than coal and can help smooth out unpredictable renewables, bolstering our energy security…
Energy reforms risk becoming ‘expensive and inefficient’, IEA warns
Government plans to reform the energy sector risk becoming “expensive and ineffective”, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned.
In its review of UK energy policy, published on Wednesday, the IEA also warned that the Green Deal efficiency scheme could be hindered by mistrust of the Big Six suppliers…
Upgrade credit rating of green projects to attract investment, CBI says
The CBI has called on the government to lift the credit ratings of offshore wind, smart grid and new nuclear projects if it wants to attract private-sector investors such as pension and sovereign wealth funds to finance the overhaul of the UK’s creaking energy infrastructure.
Over £250bn is needed to complete the 500 energy, transport, waste, water, and digital projects in the government’s pipeline, 70 per cent of which will need to come from the private sector, the business group estimates in a report out today. The bulk of these projects have a low carbon element as part of the government’s efforts to decarbonise the electricity sector and enhance the rail network…
Sustainable development flourishing in Wales’s green economy
Wales is fast becoming Europe’s testbed for sustainable development and what the UN would call “the green economy”.
Not only does it have three of Europe’s pioneering solar cell makers — Sharps in Wrexham, G24 in Cardiff and Dyesol at Shotton — it aims to be totally self-sufficient in renewable energy, it’s the only country in the UK to introduce statutory recycling and waste targets, it has put a tax on plastic bags, it has the impressive Centre for Alternative Technology at Machynlleth turning out a new generation of clean energy engineers, and its local authorities are investing heavily in renewables…
UK green economy grew £5.4bn in 2011
Record growth over the last year pushed the UK green goods and services market past the £122bn mark, according to new government figures that reveal the low carbon economy now employs almost one million people.
The sector grew 4.7 per cent against the 2009/10 figure of £116.8bn, providing an additional £5.4bn of economic activity as green industries continued to defy the sluggish progress made by the rest of the economy…
Report: Geothermal could meet a fifth of UK electricity demand
Spending £11m a year to raise subsidies for geothermal energy projects could help build an industry capable of supplying 20 per cent of the UK’s electricity needs, according to a new report.
Analysis conducted by engineering consultants Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM) found the country’s deep geothermal resources could provide 9.5GW of baseload electricity and over 100GW of heat, with particular hotspots in Cornwall, the North East and the Lake District…
DECC touts green heat wave with £10m social landlord fund
The government has today launched an expanded renewable heat competition for social housing landlords, in the hope of triggering a wave of green heat installations, such as biomass boiler and solar thermal panels.
The second social landlord competition under the Renewable Heat Premium Payment Scheme (RHPP) scheme unveiled by Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has a budget of £10m, increased from £3m last year…
Renewable energy investors fear UK dash for gas, says Ernst & Young
Fears the UK will use gas-fired power stations to deal with its looming energy crisis rather than turn to renewable sources have seen the country drop out of the top five most attractive countries for clean energy investment.
The UK dropped to sixth out of 40 countries in Ernst & Young’s quarterly report, published today, falling back below Italy after a strong performance in offshore wind energy had raised its position earlier in the year…
DECC slashes 22GW solar forecast to 11.9GW
Climate Change Minister Greg Barker has been accused of underplaying the impact of the next wave of cuts to the solar power subsidy, just hours after the government’s latest reforms to the feed-in tariff scheme won widespread praise from across the industry.
Figures contained in the government’s official impact assessment, which accompanied the changes to the scheme announced yesterday, reveal the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has almost halved its forecast for the industry to deliver 22GW by 2020…
EDF puts planned Somerset nuclear plant on hold
The award of a £1.2bn civil engineering contract for a new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point in Somerset has been put on ice by EDF Energy, triggering more uncertainty over the nuclear renaissance.
Two consortiums led by Balfour Beatty and Laing O’Rourke were hoping to have heard about the huge deal in recent days but now expect no decision until 2013 at the earliest. The move is a blow to employment prospects in the area and comes weeks after £100m worth of site preparation was postponed…
Transport
Government warns petrol companies over prices
The Government is to take action to get petrol companies to pass on cuts in global oil prices to motorists at the pumps.
Transport Secretary Justine Greening has called on fuel retailers to set up their own code of practice so consumers can monitor daily petrol or diesel prices…
The Skinny American
When it comes to gasoline, are Americans transforming from the world’s chief gluttons to models of moderation? According to Philip Verleger, the energy economist, that is more or less the country’s direction, with surprising consequences.
Verleger spells out this scenario in a note to clients, his version of the narrative of coming fossil-fuel abundance that we have heard elsewhere. Verleger’s 11-page note is as oil-bullish as his most enthusiastic colleagues, who as a group say the U.S. is on the cusp of near energy independence. The oil-abundance narrative is a global one, and asserts flatly that peak oil theory is wrong…