Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.
Oil prices gained this week, touching $120/barrel on Thursday, in response to rising tension over Iran including two key developments. One was Tehran’s announcement that Iranian made nuclear fuel rods had been loaded into a research reactor for the first time. The other a press report on Wednesday — subsequently denied by Tehran — that Iran had pre-empted Europe’s oil sanctions, due to begin July 1, by cutting oil supplies to 6 EU nations. The pressure looks likely to increase in the coming weeks with Israel and the US pressing for further sanctions including removing Iran from the global SWIFT financial clearing system.
The IEAs latest report anticipates that there is currently sufficient supply side flexibility in oil production to cover losses from Iran and also from the dispute between Sudan and South Sudan. Worth noting in its latest monthly report however was a reduction in the agency’s estimate of the maximum oil production capacity of Saudi Arabia. The change, from 12million b/d to 11.88mb/d, is fairly small, but with Saudi the only global swing producer it remains significant. The FT reports that the new figure is based on the IEA’s own models and takes into account the natural decline rate in the kingdom’s oilfields. Their spokesperson added that enhanced recovery currently underway could slow the decline. Still, is this further evidence that Saudi production is reaching its peak?
In the UK persistently high fuel prices are clearly having an effect. Department of Transport figures show that driving habits have changed significantly – mileage driven on Welsh roads fell from 13.9bn in 2007 to 13.3bn in 2010, while in the UK overall car use fell by 3% with cycling up by 15%. In domestic energy the monopoly of the big six energy companies has become a highly charged issue and alternatives like community energy schemes are gaining traction across a fairly wide political spectrum as demonstrated by a new report this week from centre right thinktank Respublica.
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Oil
Oil Trades Near Six-Week High
Oil rose for a third day as signs of an improving U.S. economy and progress on a bailout for Greece bolstered the outlook for fuel demand.
Futures increased as much as 0.6 percent and are poised for the biggest weekly gain this year after U.S. jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since 2008. European governments are considering lower interest rates on emergency loans to Greece and using European Central Bank contributions to plug a financing gap for the second bailout, two people familiar with the discussions said…
IEA downgrades Saudi Arabia’s output capacity
The latest monthly report of the International Energy Agency contained the usual update on oil supply and demand numbers, but it also revealed a striking fact: the maximum production capacity of Saudi Arabia is lower than we thought…
IEA frets over Sudanese oil dispute
The International Energy Agency said revenue disputes between Sudan and South Sudan means overall production estimates are down 25 percent.
South Sudan gained control of most of the oil reserves when Sudan was split into two countries last summer, though landlocked South Sudan depends on Sudan for access to export facilities…
Iraq Blocks Exxon Mobil Exploration Bids
Exxon Mobil is being shut out of bidding on the next round of oil and gas exploration contracts in Iraq because of its decision to sign an exploration deal with Kurdistan’s regional government in the northern part of that country.
Iraq’s decision, confirmed by a spokesman for Deputy Prime Minster for Energy Hussein al-Shahristani on Monday, is not a surprise…
North America
Oil Rise Threatens Recovery
Rising oil prices are emerging once again as a threat to the U.S. economic recovery just as it appears to be gaining momentum.
Oil prices have climbed sharply in recent weeks as mounting tension with Iran has raised the threat of a disruption in global supplies. On Wednesday, oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.06 to $101.80 a barrel on reports that Iran had cut off sales to six European countries in response to the European Union’s newly stepped-up sanctions. Iran’s oil ministry later denied the report…
Obama revives green agenda with push to end oil industry tax breaks
Barack Obama knew a budget proposal to end $40bn in tax breaks for the oil and gas industry would get him into an election-year fight with Republicans over his energy agenda.
It’s at least the fourth time the president has called for rolling back the subsidies…
Gas
Air sampling reveals high emissions from gas field
When US government scientists began sampling the air from a tower north of Denver, Colorado, they expected urban smog — but not strong whiffs of what looked like natural gas. They eventually linked the mysterious pollution to a nearby natural-gas field, and their investigation has now produced the first hard evidence that the cleanest-burning fossil fuel might not be much better than coal when it comes to climate change…
Tighten fracking regulations, scientists urge US officials
An influential group of scientists has urged US officials to step up their policing of shale gas operations and to consider stronger regulations to reduce environmental and health risks at the facilities.
The scientists called on regulators to revisit, and in many cases beef up, their guidelines to avoid surface spills at shale gas works, and to ensure the safe storage and disposal of toxic fluids used in controversial hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, operations…
Gazprom to double its European gas storage capacity
Drawing lessons from this year’s cold snap, the Russian export monopoly Gazprom has announced it will double its underground gas storage capacity in Europe, raising concerns that it might abuse its dominant position.
Russia has maintained stable deliveries to European customers despite “abnormally cold weather conditions in Russia and in Europe,” said Alexander Medvedev, deputy chairman of Gazprom’s management committee and director general of Gazprom Export. This was largely due to new underground gas storage facilities, or UGSF, he said…
Nuclear
Greenpeace praises EU nuclear stress test ‘transparency’
The stress tests carried out on Europe’s nuclear power plants in the wake of the Fukushima disaster last year have already brought “important wins”, especially in terms of transparency, says Greenpeace nuclear expert Jan Haverkamp. Speaking to EurActiv.sk in an interview, he also said the tests had exposed some “black holes” in the emergency responses that need to be addressed.
Greenpeace activists can hardly be accused of pro-industry bias when it comes to nuclear safety issues…
Warnings over proposed merger of UK’s nuclear police forces
A government proposal to merge the UK’s two nuclear police forces would be costly, messy and could create a conflict of interest between protecting British weapons and foreign-owned power stations, the Defence Police Federation has warned.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Department of Energy and Climate Change (Decc) have launched a “scoping study” into whether to amalgamate the MoD police, which looks after nuclear bomb bases and other military sites, and the Civil Nuclear Constabulary (CNC), which has responsibility for nuclear power plants. Both forces differ from the normal police in that they usually carry guns…
Renewables
Utility Giant E.on Threatens to Halt Wind Farm Investment
Germany’s plans for a radical expansion in offshore wind power generation are at risk of failure because of delays in hooking the wind farms up to the power grid, German power company E.on warned on Tuesday.
Mike Winkel, head of the company’s Climate & Renewables division, told the Berliner Zeitung newspaper that E.on and other power companies will stop investing in offshore power if the grid operators don’t speed up their construction of power lines to transport the power generated by the wind farms…
Grid blackout threat weighs on renewables take-up
The policy chief of Europe’s electricity industry association has told EurActiv that Europe will have to slow down its integration of renewable energies or risk power cuts and systems instability because of the slow pace of cross-border grid improvements.
“Either you go very fast in the transition – which is impossible [because] smart grids are expensive and the storage is not there in the needed scope — or you diminish the speed for integrating renewables into the system,” Susanne Nies of Eurelectric told EurActiv in a phone interview…
Biofuels
Biofuels could be competitive as aviation fuel by 2020
Some aviation biofuels could be competitive by 2020, but the take-up of biofuels by airlines is likely to be modest in the near term unless governments introduce mandates requiring their use, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
The cost of some biofuels — such as those based on non-food vegetable oils — could be close to that of conventional jet fuel by 2018, if production efficiency continues to improve…
UK
Hard times see motorists to leave keys at home with car usage falling as cost cutting commuters seek cheaper alternatives
CAR use in Wales has decreased dramatically since the start of the economic crisis in 2007, latest figures show.
The data suggests that rising fuel costs are driving motorists away from using their car and instead looking to cheaper alternatives — with cars travelling 517 fewer miles each year than before the downturn began…
Government urged to boost tax breaks for community energy schemes
Government departments should work more closely to promote community renewable energy schemes, including offering tax breaks to usher in “a truly transformative capitalism which places the market back into the hands of the people”.
That is the conclusion of a new report by the influential centre-right think tank Respublica, which sets out a series of 10 recommendations for government to increase the number of community-led microgeneration schemes, such as solar installations, small wind farms, and hydro electric turbines…
Siemens to build England-Scotland undersea electricity link
A £1 billion contract has been awarded for the construction of the first sub-sea electricity link between Scotland and England, energy firms announced today.
The 261-mile line will run from Hunterston in Ayrshire to a landing point on the Wirral peninsula and will have a 2,200 megawatt (MW) capacity…
Businesses pledge support for Ed Davey’s green agenda
A group comprising some of the UK’s largest firms has issued an open letter to recently appointed energy and climate change secretary Ed Davey, pledging to support efforts to develop “clean and affordable” energy and establish the UK as a leading green economy.
Household names such as the Co-operative, Kingfisher, M&S, National Grid, Sony, SSE, Thames Water, Unilever and Vodafone signed the letter alongside specialist green firms such as Climate Change Capital, Ecotricity, Good Energy and WSP. It was also backed by WWF and the Aldersgate Group of businesses, NGOs and MPs…
Review: ITV’s Cost of Going Green
Thursday night’s programme on ITV1, The Cost of Going Green, provided a reasonably balanced debate on the impacts of renewable energy and was a significant improvement on the BBC’s Panorama offering.
Last November the BBC’s Panorama programme failed to properly address climate change and the arguments on costs and benefits of renewables. They had to apologise earlier this week for a flawed and biased programme. ITV1 made a better case with a more reasoned debate on the issues of the UK’s transition from fossil fuels to halt climate change but unfortunately omitted the key reasons behind recent consumer bill increases as well as the significant potential for the renewable energy industry to create jobs…
Nick Molho is head of energy policy at WWF UK.
End energy profiteering: The rich get richer, the poor get colder
Big Six suppliers heading for bumper profits and bonuses as more than 5.5 million UK homes hit by fuel poverty
Meanwhile the Big Six energy suppliers increased their profit margins by 733 per cent in just three months last year. Enough is enough. Today The Independentsupports a campaign to force energy companies to share their profits with the needy. The aim is simple: to make essential home energy affordable to all…
Climate
Gore: ignoring carbon risks repeat of sub-prime mortgage crisis
Investors who fail to realise the cost of carbon emissions could be making the same mistake as financiers who failed to realise the true value of sub-prime mortgages, according to Al Gore.
Writing in a new five-point plan designed to encourage sustainable investment, the former US vice president warns that many investors’ assets could see their value slashed if environmental externalities such as a price of carbon are taken into account…
Revealed: How fossil fuel reserves match UN climate negotiating positions
Want to understand why we’re not solving climate change? Then follow the money — which in this case means following the carbon. I’ve spent much of the past 24 hours crunching data and it turns out there’s a very striking — and oddly overlooked — correlation between fossil fuel reserves and national negotiating position on climate change.
First, though, some background. Last year I wrote about the emerging concept of a “carbon bubble” and the risks for investors of putting money into companies that hold fossil fuel reserves. After all, if the world is to meet its stated 2C target for limiting global warming, most of those fuels will need to be left in the ground…
Geopolitics
‘The Iran Conlict Is Intensifying Step by Step’
Is anyone at the controls in Iran? It is a question that many in the West are asking following this week’s flurry of announcements, denials and conciliatory advances centering on the country’s nuclear program. Perhaps even more vexing, however, is the fact that Tehran is also thought to be behind a series of decidedly amateurish attacks targeting Israeli diplomatic personnel in Georgia, India and Thailand.
“What we see is provocative acts … designed to distract attention from the demonstrated impact that (international) sanctions are having,” White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters on Wednesday. “It is not unusual for Iran to try to distract attention … by some burst of rhetoric or some announcement.”…
Iranian tensions feared to have drastic effect on economy
The war of words between Iran and the West may have stepped up an octave, and that’s worrying experts who think increased tension can only hurt the global economy.
Reports Iran was cutting off oil supplies to Europe, which were later denied, failed to rock oil prices. Tehran has also threatened to block the lifeline for Gulf oil, the Straights of Hormuz, once the US and EU led oil embargo is implemented…
