Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.
“The energy world faces unprecedented uncertainty”, so begins the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook, released on Tuesday. The annual report from the energy watchdog guides the energy policies of OECD member countries including Britain. The 2010 report serves up three comparative energy scenarios, serious warnings on the cost of inaction on climate change, exhortations to remove fossil fuel subsidies and a section addressing energy poverty.
One surprising line from the IEA this year is that “Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68-69 mb/d, by 2020, but never regains its all-time peak of 70mb/d reached in 2006.” So, in one statement peak conventional oil is acknowledged and consigned to history. The section then goes on to assert that increasing unconventional and natural gas to liquids (NGL) production along with a raft of supply side measures — the so called New Policies Scenario — will mean that there will be sufficient oil to meet demand until 2035. This allows the IEA to acknowledge that it is no longer possible to argue about conventional peak oil, while still avoiding the political ugliness of a limit to growth.
However the supply growth estimates which underpin this are full of optimistic assumptions about the rates at which future conventional fields will be exploited, and about demand growth being met by unconventionals and NGLs. A day after the IEA launch, European Energy Chief Guenther Oettinger took a different view when he warned “The amount of oil available globally, I think, has already peaked”.
The challenge of replacing oil production was brought home after a report from the Institute for European Environmental Policy showed EU plans to source 10 per cent of transport from biofuels would raise emissions not cut them. Meeting the targets could lead to as much as an extra 56 million tonnes of CO2 per year, said the report, and would require a land area the size of Belgium. UK ministers are urging the European Commission to rethink the plans. At last.
In the UK this week the government announced that the next round of carbon capture and storage demonstration programme will be open to gas fired as well as coal fired power plants. The move comes as reliance on gas looks set to increase. The IEA anticipates a gas glut until 2020 due to shale gas and growing LNG capacity, but warns that this is likely to impede investment in renewables and nuclear in the short-term. If those investments aren’t made, then what the IEA calls “the golden age of gas” could quickly become the last missed opportunity to avert disaster.
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Oil
How to read today’s big report on the future of energy
The International Energy Agency — the autonomous Paris-based research group funded by an array of mostly European and Asian governments — has released its annual energy outlook (English language executive summary here), one of the most eagerly awaited big-picture prognostications in the business. The takeaway from this year’s report, which was leaked to the Financial Times last week, is that governments matter: What they do, or don’t do, about climate and energy policy in the next decade will determine what we pay for oil, and how much of it we have…
Chris Skrebowski
The IEA are doing their usual, giving themselves lots of wiggle room by using three scenarios. So world primary oil demand in 2035 is 107.4mn b/d on ‘Current policies scenario’, 99mn b/d on ‘New policies scenario’ and 81mn b/d on ‘450 scenario’. The first is obvious, no policy change of moment, the second assumes a number of (probably unpopular) policy changes, the final one is a fantasy where radical policy options are taken and vigorously applied to minimise CO2 emissions.
When they look at supply the only scenario that adds up is the ‘New policies scenario’ . So it appears that what they are really saying is ‘business as usual’ is not possible on shortfalls in likely supply. Keeping global warming (as predicted under current scientific understanding) to 2ºC or less is effectively impossible because the policy options and demand restrictions are so drastic. What they’re actually saying is there will have to be a number of new policies to allow demand to match available (somewhat restricted) supply. At one level this is unsurprising but I suspect still shocking to virtually all politicians and most businesses.
Richard Miller
The growth in natural gas liquids is not really germane if your problem is filling the car, as these are gases by most definitions.
Obviously there will be growth in Canadian oil sand output, but not huge amounts. Past analyses suggested that production of syncrude and bitumen might reach 6 million b/d by 2030, and this ceiling is probably still realistic. Although current projects and those in the planning stage could theoretically reach 8 million b/d by 2020, the sheer amount of investment and resources required makes this a highly stretched target.
On the subject of stretch targets, Iraq production would, if all the promises of the new operators were kept, reach over 12 million b/d by 2020 – but they will be competing for the same investment as Canada so that will not happen. And Brazil is in the same hole with its sub-salt fields, hugely expensive to develop, competing for the same investment, and doubtless priced accordingly.
International Energy Agency says ‘peak oil’ has hit. Crisis averted?
It was a looming doomsday scenario: “Peak oil” would someday hit, potentially sending food prices soaring, stock markets reeling, and countries to war to seize and protect remaining oil reserves.
Instead, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday, peak crude oil already came and went unnoticed in 2006…
Oil demand to rise for 25 years despite green push: IEA
Oil demand and price are set to grow strongly over the next 25 years despite environmental policies, essentially dooming climate-change goals, the International Energy Agency forecast on Tuesday.
Slightly more than a third of the new demand would come from China’s appetite for energy…
End $300 billion subsidies for fossil fuels, says energy watchdog
Subsidies for oil, coal and gas sectors were six times higher than those for renewable energy in 2009, the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) assessment has revealed
Ending government subsidies for fossil-fuels is the best way of cutting demand and stopping rising carbon emissions from the energy sector, says the Paris-based IEA, which urged the money to be switched to supporting the renewable sector…
Oil Trades Near Two-Year High as Dollar Heads for Weekly Decline
Oil traded near its highest level in two years in New York as the dollar headed for a weekly decline against most major counterparts after the Federal Reserve’s decision to purchase more debt to boost the U.S. economy.
Crude climbed for a fifth day, the longest rising streak in seven months. The dollar has depreciated versus all but one of its 16 most-traded peers this week. The Fed said Nov. 3 it will buy about $75 billion of Treasuries every month through June. Oil gained even as a U.S. government report Nov. 3 showed stockpiles rose last week to the highest level since May 2009…
Global oil availability has peaked – EU energy chief
The availability of oil worldwide has already peaked, the European Union’s energy chief Guenther Oettinger said on Wednesday.
“My fear is that the global consumption of oil is going to increase, but European oil consumption has already reached its peak. The amount of oil available globally, I think, has already peaked,” Oettinger told a news briefing in Brussels.
He was presenting a new EU energy strategy for investing 1 trillion euros over the next decade in a common EU energy network, to curb the bloc’s dependence on fossil fuel imports.
Oil Will Be ‘Substantially Higher’ by 2012 as Supplies Drop, Goldman Says
Oil prices will be “substantially higher” by 2012 as the global stockpile surplus shrinks and excess production capacity drops, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the most profitable bank in Wall Street history.
Global economic growth will drive oil demand and reduce inventories, which are still “exceptionally high” in developed countries including the U.S., the world’s biggest user of crude, Goldman said in a report dated yesterday. Spare capacity held by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will decline as the 12-member group, which pumps 40 percent of the world’s oil, boosts supply to meet demand, the bank said…
Arctic oil spill clean-up plans are ‘thoroughly inadequate’, industry warned
The next big offshore oil disaster could take place in the remote Arctic seas where hurricane-force winds, 30ft seas, sub-zero temperatures and winter darkness would overwhelm any clean-up attempts, a new report warns.
With the ban on offshore drilling lifted in the Gulf of Mexico, big oil companies such as Royal Dutch Shell are pressing hard for the Obama administration to grant final approval to Arctic drilling. Shell has invested more than $2bn to drill off Alaska’s north coast, and is campaigning to begin next summer…
‘Bad calls’ preceded Gulf of Mexico blast
BP, Transocean and Halliburton, the three companies involved in the disastrous Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico, made “egregiously bad decisions” and are in need of “top to bottom” reform, said one of the heads of the US presidential commission investigating the accident…
China’s October Crude Oil Imports Decline From Record Reached in September
China, the world’s biggest energy user, cut net crude oil imports to the lowest level in 18 months as refiners drew on inventories because of higher global prices.
Net purchases reached 16.1 million metric tons last month, or 3.8 million barrels a day, according to customs data released in Beijing today. That’s the lowest since May 2009 and down from the all-time high of 22.9 million tons in September…
Norway’s Oil Production Drops 7% in October to 1.87 Million Barrels a Day
Norway, the second-biggest exporter of natural gas, said output rose 13 percent in October from a year earlier, while crude oil production slipped 7 percent.
Oil production dropped to 1.868 million barrels a day from 2.009 million and gas output rose to 9.3 billion cubic meters from 8.2 billion, according to preliminary figures today from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. Norway pumped 365,000 barrels a day of condensate and natural-gas liquids…
Iraq
Iraq power-sharing deal could break deadlock
Iraqi politicians have announced a deal which could finally see the formation of a government after eight months of political deadlock.
But while the US called the development “a big step forward for Iraq”, Ayad Allawi, the leader of the bloc that won the most votes in March’s election, is seriously considering walking away from the deal…
Gas
Gas CCS comes one step closer
Here’s some news that will cheer both environmentalists and hydrocarbon producers.
The UK government is going to open up its CCS trials to gas plants as well as coal ones. After the first demonstration, the next batch of three will be open to applications from gas-fired power plants…
Gas glut threatens investment in renewables sector, IEA warns
A global gas glut which could last a decade will act as a “major barrier” to the development of renewable energy, cleaner coal plants and nuclear power, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“The golden age of gas” will lead to cheaper gas prices for consumers, particularly in Europe. But the IEA added that it is also likely to result in a rush to build gas-fired power plants at the expense of much cleaner forms of electricity generation…
Pledge to lift EU energy barriers
Europe’s energy chief pledged to dismantle barriers that have thwarted the goal of a common European energy market as he unveiled a strategy paper calling for €1,000bn in new investment over the next decade…
Electricity
E.ON prepares for £3.5bn sell-off of distribution network
E.ON is understood to be at an advanced stage of negotiations with a consortia of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Canada Pension Fund and Macquarie for its distribution interests, the second largest in the UK.
They cover customers and areas previously served before electricity privatisation by the Midlands and East Midlands companies…
Renewables
Concentrated solar, biofuels competitive soon: BCG
Solar energy and biofuels are on track to become economically competitive against conventional power sources within a few years to a decade, the Boston Consulting Group said on Wednesday.
Wind power and electric cars face hurdles to massive adoption, though, analysts at the consulting firm said in a report…
How France eclipsed the UK with Brittany tidal success story
The UK may have turned its back on the Severn barrage but across the channel they have been harnessing tidal energy from the River Rance for more than 40 years – and it may yet point to a way forward for smaller-scale renewable projects
Although France is rich in many areas, it is very poor in energy resources. The Germans and Spanish have coal, Britain has enjoyed an abundance of oil, gas and coal, the Dutch have gas from the North Sea, and the Swiss enjoy plentiful hydro-electric power…
Biofuels
Biofuel plan will cause rise in carbon emissions
Britain’s promise to more than double its use of biofuels by 2020 is “significantly” adding to worldwide carbon emissions, the Government admitted yesterday. Britain is signed up to a European guarantee to source 10 per cent of its transport fuel from renewable sources, such as biofuels, within the next 10 years.
But ministers have said that the policy is proving counter-productive and the greenhouse emissions associated with biofuels are substantially greater than the savings. They are now urging the European Commission to rethink the plan. The admission coincides with a major study published this week which concludes that biofuels will create an extra 56 million tons of CO2 per year — the equivalent of 12 to 26 million cars on Europe’s roads by 2020…
UK
The energy bill that lets consumers gamble on future savings
Interest rate-savvy homeowners who are used to weighing up the merits of fixed-rate mortgages against tracker deals will soon be making similar bets on energy prices to pay their fuel bills.
The government is to unveil a Green Deal bill by the end of the year, which will result in energy companies spending a total of £250bn over the next decade on the upfront costs of improving insulation on individual homes…
Sita to turn plastic into diesel to power vehicles
Sita, the waste company owned by the €7bn (£6bn) French utility Suez Environment, will on Monday unveil plans to build up to 10 plants, creating 120 jobs and costing an estimated £50m.
The first, likely to be located in the London area, will convert so-called “end of life” plastics back into oil-based fuel. This is the dregs of plastic waste contaminated by food stuffs, which ordinarily ends up at landfill because it cannot be recycled…
Chancellor aiming to reveal structure of green investment bank by Christmas
George Osborne said today he hoped to outline structural details of the government’s green investment bank before Christmas, insisting that he wanted to “get it right” to ensure it was a success.
The chancellor told the Treasury select committee that the bank will be set up “as soon as possible”, as he insisted that the planned business model was now at an advanced stage. The bank is expected to help fund clean energy projects such as windfarms…
