Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.
As ODAC News went to press, hopes of a deal in Copenhagen were finally rising, after two weeks of chaos and acrimony. In a scene reminiscent of the climax to a Hollywood blockbuster, Hilary Clinton arrived in the Danish capital on Thursday to announce US support for climate aid to the developing world of $100bn per year by 2020. Along with a softening stance from the African Union and China, there is finally the prospect that a deal can be done.
But if so, it is likely to fall far short of ideal. A leaked assessment from the UN climate convention secretariat shows that the current emissions reductions pledges are 2 to 4 billion tonnes short of what’s required to keep temperature rise below 2C. And the amount of money on the table, while vast, must be seen in context. $100bn to save the planet compares to $95bn profits that Exxon, Shell and BP racked up last year; $130bn budgeted for the US campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan next year; and $439 billion expected to be spent by oil companies on exploration and production in 2010. With the stakes so high to squeeze out every last drop of fossil fuel, any deal at Copenhagen will have to be just the start.
Despite high profits, big oil is struggling to replace its reserves as the world’s ‘easy oil’ depletes. So no surprise at the high level of interest in last Friday & Saturday’s auction of contracts to exploit approximately a third of Iraq’s existing reserves. But the deals are also a sign of how far the international oil companies have fallen. With nowhere else on the planet offering access to such quantities of easy oil, Iraq has been able to drive a hard bargain, and companies will be paid a fee of around $1.40 per incremental barrel produced rather than a share of the profits. The once mighty Seven Sisters are now the hired help.
But reports that ramped up production from Iraq will transform the oil supply, slash the oil price and potentially break OPEC appear credulous. Contracts awarded in the auction require the oil companies to raise Iraq’s output from 2.5mb/d to as much as 12mb/d within a decade, but the world loses at least 3.5mb/d each year to depletion. So even if Iraq managed to overcome all obstacles and achieve that astounding increase, it would offset less than three years’ depletion. Then what?
In Britain, London Mayor Boris Johnson announced this week a £60 million initiative to develop a network of 22,500 charge points for electric vehicles around London. Such a plan could make a real dent in both transport emissions and oil dependency in the capital, all the more so if coupled with a strong public transport infrastructure, bike and pedestrian friendly roads and renewable energy. The IEA this week advised that to meet existing climate change goals, 72p of every pound invested in energy in Europe by 2030 would need to be spent on renewables. With the writing on the wall for both peak oil and climate change, what are we waiting for?
Read ODAC commentary on a recent article about the prospects for oil in the Falklands
This is the last ODAC newsletter of 2009 – we will be back on January 15th, 2010. All at ODAC wish you a Happy Christmas and all the very best for the New Year. If you are able to support our work with a donation it would be very much appreciated. Your contribution will help us continue our awareness-raising and outreach work. Please do help if you can. Thanks for following us in 2009. Please pass on our newsletter to your friends, colleagues, local Councillors and MPs.
Oil
OPEC Raises Forecast Demand for Its Members’ Crude Oil in 2010
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised the estimate for the amount of crude its members will have to pump next year as world consumption recovers.
OPEC, which produces about 40 percent of the world’s oil, predicts members will need to produce 28.61 million barrels a day to satisfy demand in 2010. That’s about 100,000 barrels a day more than last month’s projection and represents an increase in 30,000 barrels a day from 2009, the first annual rise in three years…
Opec leaves Iraq oil surge off agenda
When the Opec oil cartel meets next week, its members will discuss everything except the one thing that threatens their unity most: Iraq’s potential surge in production…
Global Oil, Gas Upstream Spending To Rise 11% In 2010 -Survey
Total global spending on oil and gas exploration and production in 2010 should rebound significantly, rising 11% from the previous year to $439 billion, but will remain below its 2008 level of around $465 billion, according to an industry survey conducted by Barclays Capital published Thursday.
Spending in North America is expected to show the sharpest recovery. U.S. spending will rise 12% to $79 billion in 2010, said the survey. “Gains are driven by increased spending in the newer shale [gas] plays, such as the Haynesville and Marcellus, and higher oil-related expenditures,” the survey said…
Speculators don’t cause oil price swings – JPMorgan
Over 90 percent of the market swings in oil since 2006 were due to supply shocks, not price speculation, JPMorgan said Wednesday in a study that questions tough market curbs proposed on commodity investors.
“It is often heard in non-market circles that if speculators move prices, then removing speculators from the equation would reduce prices,” JPM, one of the leading voices in commodities among Wall Street banks, said in the study…
Crude Oil Falls as Dollar Reaches Three-Month High Against Euro
Crude oil fell for the first time in three days as the dollar strengthened against the euro, limiting the appeal of commodities as a currency hedge.
Crude gained as the dollar rose to a three-month high against the euro as Greece’s latest debt downgrade fanned concern that spiralling national debts may hamper the global economic recovery. The U.S. currency also gained after the Federal Reserve said yesterday the economy is strengthening and the deterioration in the labor market is abating…
Iraq
Gulf brushes off Iraq oil threat, nears joint currency
Gulf states on Tuesday brushed off mounting economic threats including Iraq’s plans to massively boost oil output as they strode towards launching their own single currency.
Winding up a two-day summit of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, leaders also issued joint statements to back Saudi Arabia in its fight against Yemeni rebels and opposition to military action against Iran…
Majnoon win gives Shell a boost
The invitation to develop Iraq’s huge oil reserves could not have come at a better time for the biggest western oil companies.
Royal Dutch Shell, in particular, is counting its blessing that Baghdad has opened up the world’s third-largest oil reserves more than 30 years after they were nationalised and six years after Saddam Hussein was overthrown by a US-led invasion force…
Shell, Lukoil to Join Iraqi Top Producers Based on Winning Bids
Royal Dutch Shell Plc and OAO Lukoil will join BP Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. among Iraq’s top oil producers based on their pledges in winning bids this weekend as the country auctioned 28 percent of its crude assets.
Russia’s Lukoil and partner Statoil ASA of Norway won rights yesterday to develop the second phase of Iraq’s “super giant” West Qurna deposit, agreeing to pump 1.8 million barrels of oil from the field within six years. Shell and Malaysian partner Petroliam Nasional Bhd., or Petronas, committed on Dec. 11 in Baghdad to extract the same amount of crude from Iraq’s Majnoon field…
Gas
Exxon Mobil buys ‘unconventional’ XTO for $31bn
Exxon Mobil, the world’s largest oil group, is to buy XTO, a natural-gas producer, in an all-stock agreement valued at $31 billion.
The deal, Exxon’s first major acquisition since its merger with Mobil ten years ago, will boost the company’s presence in the natural gas industry, at a time when plunging gas prices are making it hard for gas companies to finance growth…
If gas could talk
After almost 20 years of relative isolation from the west, Turkmenistan – a country with one of the world’s worst human rights records – is eyeing European markets for business. And Europe is eager to buy, and quick to overlook democratic principles in exchange for gas.
Turkmenistan’s commitment to supply gas for the planned Nabucco pipeline is critical for Europe’s energy independence from Russia. Turkmenistan holds the world’s fourth largest natural gas reserves, and until recently has been selling them to Russia, a traditional ally. Last April, however, Russia terminated its purchase of Turkmen gas after a pipeline explosion, combined with the impact of the financial crisis, which reduced demand. This decision has been costing Turkmenistan over $1bn per month, making a deal with Europe in the Nabucco pipeline a mutual necessity…
Gas price for Ukraine to rise sharply in 2010
The price of Russian gas for Ukraine is likely to reach $300-$310 per 1,000 cubic metres in the Q1 2010 from about $208 in Q4 2009, the head of Ukrainian unit of Russia’s Gazprom (GAZP.MM) said on Thursday.
Ukraine imported Russian gas at $360 per 1,000 cubic metres in the first quarter of 2009, $273 in the second quarter and $198 in the third quarter…
Natural Gas Hits 11-Month High on Inventory Data
Natural-gas futures soared to an 11-month high after government data showed a withdrawal from U.S. gas inventories of 207 billion cubic feet for the week ended Dec. 11, well above the 176 billion cubic feet analysts and traders had predicted in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
Natural gas for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 36.6 cents higher, or 6.7%, at $5.828 a million British thermal units after reaching a high of $5.911/MMBtu, the highest price since January. Futures were about 4% above where they were trading prior to the data release…
Renewables
Wind farms for security not the climate, says E.ON Renwables chief executive Frank Mastiaux
Building wind farms is even more important for keeping the lights on than tackling global warming, according to the chief executive of E.ON Renewables.
At the Copenhagen climate change conference, Frank Mastiaux, who is aiming to make wind and solar a third of E.ON’s business, claimed that increasing emphasis on renewables made sense from a commercial point of view given the inevitability of rising oil, gas and coal prices…
Unplugging from the world’s power lines
You won’t hear much about it in the vast conference halls of the Copenhagen climate change summit, but living “off-grid” — beyond the water and power lines that intersect much of the modern world — could hold a solution to some of the planet’s worst environmental woes.
Initially adopted by hippies and environmental mavericks, the pioneering lifestyle has grown to attract thousands of devotees who choose to live completely independently of the local utilities power grid and instead generate their own electricity and water…
How Effective Are Renewables, Really?
The last 10 years have seen massive amounts of taxpayer money invested in renewable energies in Germany. Growth in the industry has been rapid. But has the development been universally good? SPIEGEL ONLINE takes a look at those renewables with promise — and those which might flop…
Part 2: Wind Power
Part 3: Photovoltaic
Part 4: Solar-Thermal Energy
Part 5: Hydroelectric Power
Part 6: Bioenergy
Part 7: Geothermal Power
Head of Geopower Basel faces jail for causing earthquakes
A geologist searching for cheap, clean energy is facing up to five years in jail for causing a series of earthquakes after drilling 3 miles (5km) down in an effort to generate electricity from hot rocks…
Iberdrola chief warns over green power
Energy prices will have to rise if companies are to make the investments needed to cut carbon dioxide emissions, the head of the world’s largest wind power company has said…
IEA: 72p of every pound invested in energy needs to be spent on renewables
Almost three-quarters of the money spent on Britain and Europe’s energy sectors by 2030 will need to go towards renewable power, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Dr Fatih Birol, chief economist of the IEA, said that 72p in every pound of new investment ought to be spent on clean energy, such as wind and solar, to hit current targets on global warming. The remaining 28p would be spent on nuclear and fossil fuels…
Climate
Climate deal looks close, but may not halt warming
A deal at the UN climate summit looks more likely following a frantic day of behind the scenes diplomacy.
China signalled concessions on monitoring of emission curbs, and the US said it would commit money for developing countries.
Leaders are likely to have big choices to make when they meet on Friday.
However, a leaked document from the UN climate convention indicates the best deal likely here will not keep the temperature rise below 2C (3.6F)…
Shell’s promise of a bright future turns out to be yet another false dawn
Editors must love Shell. Almost whatever I have read about climate change and the UN talks in Copenhagen in recent weeks, it has been flanked by the familiar Shell logo somewhere in the background.
From geeky titles like New Scientist to politico mags such as Prospect and New Statesman; and newspapers like the Guardian, the world’s second largest corporation has been splashing out – filling screens and newsprint with adverts and underwriting special supplements. Shell also sponsored a major research project by the Economist Intelligence Unit, called Countdown to Copenhagen, launched early this year at a Shell-sponsored “sustainability summit”…
Geopolitics
US House passes Iran sanctions bill amid nuclear row
The US House of Representatives has overwhelmingly approved new sanctions against Iran aimed at halting its disputed nuclear programme.
The measure empowers President Barack Obama to ban foreign firms that supply Iran with refined petroleum from doing business in the US…
Transport
Mayor’s £60m electric car scheme
Mayor Boris Johnson has pledged every Londoner will be no more than one mile from an electric car charge point by 2015.
His £60m plan would see 22,500 charge points at workplaces, 500 on the street and 2,000 in public car parks.
Mr Johnson made the announcement at a meeting of city leaders in Copenhagen…
