Random snippets from ASPO conference:
Between now and 2012 increased OPEC spare capacity + NGL + Deep water production could drive oil prices down to $30s or 40s – Mike Rodgers
A lot of operators will back off to avoid going into steep decline. Watch Russia – Matt Simmons
3 out of 4 Russian giant gas fields are in decline – Simmons
Out of Rigs, no new oil – Matt Simmons
Cantarel, the single most improtant field for the US could go from 1.7 mbd today to .6 mbd in 2010 – Simmons
KSA rigs up dramatically, production flat
Leading countries no longer increasing production despite big new rig count – Staniford
LNG supply to US declined in 2005. Spain and Japan outbid us. Supplies are not there Tankers are not being built – Arthur Smith
1/3 of new oil found has cost > $25 / bbl – Smith
25% increase in exploration spending between 2001 and 2005, 4% increase in production – Smith
Expansion of Canadian Oilsands limited by natural gas, water and dilutant. – David Hughes
Oil Sands Cap cost 2004 – $78,000 /bbl/day; 2006 – $131,000 / bbl / day – Hughes
Oil Sands mining uses 3/4 mcf / bbl
insitu uses 1.5 mcf / bbl – Hughes
EROI for Oil Sands = 2 – Hughes
Biofuels without major technical progress will provide insignificant role in meeting future needs – James Bartis
Bright future for biofuels, Competitive @ $30 oil – Lee Lynd
Corn Ethanol EROI = 1.3 per Pimentel; = 20 per Khosla (I know he misquoted Pimentel) – Lynd
Biofuels have life cycle issues for food production, wildlife and recreation – Lybd
Cape Wind Power proposal has EROI of 8 to 12 – Jim Gordon
Hubbert’s Curve can’t differentiate between demand destruction and supply constraint – Robert Kaufmann
With assumption changes, Hubberts Curve can predict peaks ranging from 2013 and 2036. Peak is uncertain using this method – Kaufmann
Those predicting peak will prefer to be late with alternatives rather than early to maximize profits – Kaufmann
No economic incentive for OPEC to ramp up production capacity for same reasons – Kaufmann
High oil prices support US defecit spending because 45% of petrodollars are recycled back to US – William Clark
Other petrobourses will undermine US world reserve currency – Clark
Iran’s uranium contains molybdenum which hinders purification. Only US, Russia and China know how to remove – Clark
Best case, best assumptions, crash course US needs 5 years just to get started for peak oil; 10 years before anything is produced and 20 years before we can produce significant quantities of substitutes for conventional oil. Waiting is deadly. Preparing will require unpopular measures – Roger Bezdek
World car demand is going up up up (from graph). Freight and air demand is growing faster than cars.
There are too many of us using too much stuff – John Heywood
Technology will not solve 300% growth in fuel demand – Heywood
Fuel Cells for Cars – We are stuck on storage – Bill Reinert
Can’t recycle Lithium Ion batteries – Reinert
Biodiesel is #1 reason for deforestation of tropical rainforests (palm oil) – Reinert
Rolling volatility for oil and another crisis within 10 years – Reinert
Ogalla aquifer decline serious problem for biofuels in US – Reinert
All parts of Toyota designs have carbon budgets – Reinert
In 1975 80% of Americans never traveled by air – Randy Udall
We are living like gods. How to return to earth? Udall
We consume 140# of plastic and petroleum per person per week in US. We are the oil tribe – Udall
Easy oil is gone. 62% of remaining oil is in Middle East. 75% of remaining oil is in Muslim countries – Micahel Klare
Unstable, corrupt, hostile to US, ruled by violent people – Klare
Expect most oil producing regions to become more violent – Klare
US government’s stated special responsibility is to preserve access to supply. Military’s role is protect the flow of oil – Klare
Chinese are contesting our right to prject power – Klare
