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German broadcast on peak oil Tuesday May 2
Paul Nellen, Deutschlandrundfunk
Switching Tracks (National Public Radio & Saarland Broadcasting Company, Tues 02 May)
Paul Nellen’s radio program on oil depletion will be broadcast on evening of Tues 02 May:
The program will be aired Tuesday evening, May 2nd, 2006, 19:15h Berlin time. It can be received also live via web stream (GO: www.dradio.de ) and later-on probably on demand as well for quite a while.
“Spurwechsel – Vor dem Uebergang in die Nach-Erdoelzeit”
English translation:
Switching Tracks: Germany before crossing over into Peak-oil
Within the next few decades the global oil reserves will fall slowly. The commodity becomes more and more expensive, by now even wars are led around access to oil wells.
Other than in the USA and some other countries, up to now the foreseeable end of the oil age and the dimension of the problem has not found much public attention in Germany. Will we be able to change track on time into a post-fossil fuel age if oil supplies get shorter and more expensive?
Many engineers, scientists and companies, however, work in Germany already on a future without oil.
Are their achievements appropriate enough to heading us into a smooth transition period? Paul Nellen’s 45 minutes program describes observations and impressions from the workshops and switch places for the ages after the oil. It features also Members of the Bundestag and German top financial and industry leaders.
Production: Germany National Public Radio & Saarland Broadcasting Company in 2006
The radio program’s title is “Spurwechsel – Vor dem Uebergang in die Nach-Erdoelzeit” and it should be mentioned that way for those readers of the newsletter who understand German and want to get the live stream on dradio.de.
(1 May 2006)
The No. 1 energy fund’s wild (but energizing) ride
Gregory Zuckerman, Wall Street Journal via Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
…To get a sense of the [energy] sector, we turned to Dan Rice, who oversees one of the top mutual funds of the past decade,
…WSJ: Why won’t energy prices tumble as they did in the 1980s after the last spike?
Mr. Rice: The last price collapse was created not so much by lower gasoline and electricity use, which didn’t really change. The key was (that) power plants began substituting cheaper ways of making energy, such as coal, nuclear power and natural gas, instead of crude oil and residual oil.
But today we’ve eaten through the surpluses of the early 1980s of coal, natural gas and nuclear power, and there’s been little to no new investments in those areas. People are only now saying we need more coal and nuclear power, and environmental laws are stronger now for developing new sources of energy. … This time around, we can’t do that substitution.
WSJ: What would shake your bullish hypothesis?
Mr. Rice: The real worry I have is that oil prices go higher, and at some point you will induce significant demand destruction, and that is not good (for shares of oil producers).
But we haven’t really seen that yet…
…WSJ: Are energy stocks more volatile than in the past given events in Iraq, Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela?
Mr. Rice: We have had sea changes that have brought extreme volatility, and we will continue to see it. Every year since 2000, we get two 20 percent wicked, severe corrections that shake out the weak hands among investors.
WSJ: Does terror-fear boost — or reduce — returns for oil stocks?
Mr. Rice: In general, anything that contracts world economies is not good for oil. Terrorism that shuts down supply could be a short-term positive; you could generate a price spike, but that is not a positive in the long term. You don’t want to force the world to change technology and displace a lot of future oil consumption.
It’s like we’re driving down the road, and eventually we are going to fall off the cliff as we reach peak oil production in the world. We don’t know if it will happen in three or 10 years, but we do know that the situation in Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq and Iran could have a big impact on supply that shoves the car off the road at any point. It’s a point that has to be factored in by investors. The best of all worlds for me is if oil sits around $60 or $70 a barrel until we fall off the cliff and peak oil is reached.
WSJ: So you think the peak could be hit in as few as three years? How would we know we’re at the peak, and what do you mean by “fall off the cliff”?
Mr. Rice: The timing depends on when several of the world’s largest oil fields begin to roll over. Unfortunately, information on most of these fields is guarded as a “state secret” and is difficult to obtain and analyze. Suffice to say that the average age of the Mideast fields in question (is) over 50 years old, and when they start to decline, the decline will be over 10 percent a year. That would be “peak oil,” as the world probably couldn’t add enough new production to offset declines of that magnitude from the giant fields.
However, I suspect that the price effect on oil would be somewhat muted by new coal-to-liquids production and additional liquid natural gas.
(1 May 2006)
Rice said:
The best of all worlds for me is if oil sits around $60 or $70 a barrel until we fall off the cliff and peak oil is reached.
Note that this would be the worst case for society at large – prices low enough to discourage alternatives to oil, until peak oil catches society unprepared. -BA
The Shape of Things to Come – Preparing for Energy Descent
Unwelcome Guests Collective
Two Hours of Audio on Peak Oil
Understanding and preparing for energy descent – audio from “Fueling the Future” and a new study confirms benefits of organic farming.
With: Colin Campbell, Richard Heinberg, David Pimentel
www.radio4all.net/proginfo.php?id=17745
From the Show: Unwelcome Guests
Show: #303
Title: The Shape of Things to Come
Subtitle: Preparing for Energy Descent
Program Type: Weekly Program
Featured Speakers/Commentators: Colin Campbell, Richard Heinberg, David Pimentel
Producer: Unwelcome Guests Collective
Broadcast Restrictions: For non-profit use only.
Summary: Understanding and preparing for energy descent – audio from “Fueling the Future” and a new study confirms benefits of organic farming.
(23 April 2006)
