Tom Standing

Canadian energy authorities have done it again. They missed their last rosy projection of future oil sands production, so they issued a new one: they merely pushed the big surge in production 5 years into the future.

Congressional leaders use the sound bite, “We can’t drill our way out of this oil mess.” Of course; who ever claimed we could? But we can’t conserve our way out either. Reducing demand is a long-term process; “evolution” may be a more accurate term. Tightening CAFE standards will ease demand, but the benefit would be spread over many years. For long-term reduction, we would have to overhaul our daily travel patterns through societal lifestyle changes while we restructure our cities and suburbs. Such fundamental changes will take a human generation or longer. It took decades for the car culture to evolve in the U.S. It will take that long to reverse it.

There is a huge discrepancy between the National Petroleum Council’s (NPC) projection for enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and the history of actual EOR results. Where does EOR succeed and where does it not?

In their recent 400+ page report, the National Petroleum Council (NPC) projects that enhanced oil recovery (EOR) will contribute an enormous increment of total global supply of petroleum liquids. By any reasonable analysis, NPC’s projection of EOR production rates is unachievable.

The chart using the BP world oil production data effectively separates the peaked producers from those who are increasing, and those who may still increase or at least hold steady for awhile. This article add a few thoughts on likely future production trends.

Thanks to the Reforma and Cantarell field discoveries, Mexico’s oil production grew dramatically, starting from the mid-1970s and running right up to its peak production in 2004. But Cantarell, Mexico’s largest field, is in decline. Part one of this 4-part series covers the background.