Roger Boyd

The paper “Mitigation implications of an ice-free summer in the Arctic Ocean”[4] provides estimates for the effect of an ice-free Arctic in the month of September in 2050 and 2040. As the paper comments, the possibility of an early loss in arctic sea ice has not been included in any of the Integrated Assessment Models used to assess the societal impacts of climate change.

With atmospheric levels of CO2 recently jumping at a rate of 3ppm per year, CO2e levels could soon be increasing at 4-5ppm per year. A level of 550 ppm CO2e, consistent with a 3 degree centigrade rise in temperatures, would then be reached in the early 2030’s.

The need for rapid changes in the way that we run our societies, and the acceptance that the old geographical and climatic certainties may rapidly change, is needed. The thought that we can simply geo-engineer our way out of trouble may be proven to be the naiveté of a still young civilization.

The situation in Asia shows the problem facing the global electricity sector; as rich countries struggle to peak or reduce emissions, newly industrializing countries are rapidly increasing fossil fuel usage as they move through the energy intensive early stages of industrialization.

Taking into account fugitive methane emissions from the production and distribution of natural gas, the U.S. electricity-generating sector may not reduce overall climate-warming emissions at all during the foreseeable future.

Western Europe and Scandinavia have been held up as leaders in moving to a low-carbon future in electricity generation, but the reality is very mixed. Scandinavia benefits from its large hydroelectric resources, relative to population size, and therefore has a very low electricity carbon footprint. France is low carbon due to its predominantly nuclear-based generating capacity.