Jeff Gerth

…doubts about Saudi Arabia’s assurances of how much it can expand capacity – and for how long – have been raised in a secret intelligence report and in a separate analysis by a leading government oil adviser, according to a federal government official and the oil expert.

Energy forecasts call for Saudi Arabia to almost double its output in the next decade and after. Oil executives and government officials in the United States and Saudi Arabia, however, say capacity will probably stall near current levels, potentially creating a significant gap in the global energy supply.

From his spare office over a grocery store in Geneva, Conrad Gerber can sway world oil markets. Mr Gerber runs a small firm, Petro-Logistics, that collects and analyses data on the world’s supplies of oil. His confidential reports, which cost his select list of clients as much as $ 5,000 a month, often find their way into the business press, typically causing jumps or dips in the volatile petroleum markets.