Byron King

A couple weeks ago, I attended the 2009 international conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), out in Denver. Here’s the long and short of it. We’re in trouble. With a capital “T,” and that rhymes with “P,” and that stands for Peak Oil. By every measure, the world’s output of crude oil peaked between 2005 and 2007.

What if it was the US that closed the Straits of Hormuz? What would the world think if the US directly precipitated the end of ship traffic in the Straits, or at least severe restrictions on transit and passage? Well, we almost found out last Friday, March 20.

For setting energy policy, the U.S. needs to have a detailed, mine-by-mine analysis of resources and reserves based on current data using all of the available geological and mathematical tools for modeling. In the end, we should not be surprised to learn that only a small fraction of previously estimated coal reserves will ever be economically recoverable.

Just as the world does not work too well at $147 oil, the energy industry does not work well with oil at $37. If $147 oil was a problem, then $37 oil is actually NOT the solution. Cheap oil might even be worse for the world over the long term.

Long term oil is headed back up, for all the familiar reasons. Really, it’s not like anyone is finding new large oil deposits out in exploration land. Indeed, a whole lot of looking is leading to not very much finding in the exploration patch.

Let’s talk about oil speculation, NAFTA and energy policy.