Looking ahead to the next 50 years, what are the big energy challenges for the world? Here’s the view from the chief scientist of one the world’s biggest oil companies.
Since 2004, Steve Koonin has served as chief scientist of BP, the world’s second largest independent oil company. BP refines and markets petroleum products in more than 100 countries and serves more than 13 million customers each day. As chief scientist, Koonin is responsible for BP’s long-range technology plans and activities, particularly those “beyond petroleum.” He spoke with Earth & Sky’s Jorge Salazar in March, 2006.
Salazar: What are the problems that energy presents for the world in the next several decades?
Koonin: I think they can be cast in three sets of targets.
There is increasing concentration of some energy resources in a few parts of the world. Being able to guarantee a continuous supply of adequate energy where it is needed is going to be an increasing challenge in the next decades.
One is the issue of security of supply. Although there is plenty of energy in the world, and the world will not be running out of energy anytime soon, there is increasing concentration of some energy resources in a few parts of the world. Being able to guarantee a continuous supply of adequate energy where it is needed is going to be an increasing challenge in the next decades.
The second challenge is the issue of greenhouse gas emissions. Eighty-five percent of the world’s energy comes from fossil fuels. That’s unlikely to change in the next several decades. Learning how to use energy resources without continuing to emit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which are very likely changing our climate, is going to be a challenge.
The third challenge is to bring adequate energy to the under served population of the world. Right now, a significant fraction of the world does not have adequate energy. We know that energy use is linked to well-being and economic development. There are billions of people who aren’t connected to an electrical grid. We have to change that, while at the same time respecting the other two problems.
Salazar: Regarding security of supply, what are the hang-ups there?
Crude oil is where the greatest issue is. The supplies are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few countries, and the way that we can try to alleviate a lot of that imbalance is through better use of existing resources.
Koonin: The problem is most acute in the form of oil, much less acute for coal. Coal is well located in respect to its demand centers. There are great coal resources in the U.S., in Asia, China, and India, and to some extant in Europe. And so security of supply is not so much of an issue for coal.
Crude oil is where the greatest issue is. The supplies are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few countries, and the way that we can try to alleviate a lot of that imbalance is through better use of existing resources. For example, you might be interested to know that on average, the world recovers only about 35% of the oil that is known to be in existing reservoirs.
Technologies, such as biofuels, that can up that percentage can ensure the security of the world’s energy supply. Biofuels are, or can be, an indigenous resource, and BP believes that they can be scaled to a point where they can be a material contribution to transportation fuels. So this is a technology that will be further developed.
Further out, there are other more exotic sources of oil in tar sands, shale oil, and the conversion of coal into liquid fuels that the world will be looking at as it deals with the security of supply.
Salazar: How does BP, a leading oil refiner, address the problem of reducing greenhouse gas emissions?
But it is not so much about the technologies as it is just arranging the social and political systems to get these into the hands of people.
Koonin: As with many energy issues, it’s not just about technology. It’s also about the social, political, and economic context in which technologies are used. Certainly, in extreme situations, there are very simple technologies that can be brought to bear. Solar cells, for example, are a great way of providing modest amounts of electricity off-grid. There are interesting ways that biomass can be used to provide heating and cooking that we and others are exploring. There are solar water heaters, for example, which can be used. All of these can help make a big difference for folks who have energy poverty. But it is not so much about the technologies as it is just arranging the social and political systems to get these into the hands of people.
Salazar: What progress has BP made with its “Beyond Petroleum” program, initiated in 2000?
Koonin: The premise of “beyond petroleum” is that the world needs energy, and petroleum is an available and usable source right now. At some point in the future, the world may well find it important to be able to move beyond petroleum, and we need to be investigating technologies that will allow us to do that.
BP has taken a number of concrete steps in order to begin that journey. For example, in November 2005, we announced our alternative energy division, which we have created to provide low-carbon power technologies to the world. This includes solar, wind, novel uses of natural gas, to generate electric power which produces much less carbon than using coal. Maybe most interestingly, it includes hydrogen power technology, whereby fossil fuels can be used to produce electricity with very low carbon dioxide emissions.
As we look out over the next 30 to 50 years, there are great challenges for the globe, and while economic and political solutions will play an important role in meeting them, technology is likely to play a central role if we are to deal with them effectively.
We have also begun a set of research projects on technologies that can make additional contributions to moving beyond petroleum. We’re increasingly interested in biofuels, advanced photovoltaics, and other methods for using fossil fuel resources in ways that don’t have significant environmental impact.
Salazar: How do you, as Chief Scientist for BP, address the perception by some that oil companies are part of the greenhouse gas emissions problem, not part of the solution?
Koonin: First of all, it is a problem for all of us, since the products that we’re producing help make the world economy run. What we need to do is be able to devise technologies and produce products that can provide energy to people in an environmentally-responsible way.
The world, as a whole, needs to be able to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by almost a factor of two in the next 40 to 50 years. At the same time, there will be an increase in demand in energy by about a factor of two. So all together, our energy intensity has to go down by a factor of four, and this has to be done in the next 50 years or so.
To reduce large amounts of CO2 commensurate with the magnitude of the challenge, one has to look at all possible sources of CO2 and work on them. But in fact, the largest come from stationary sources. About 80% of the world’s emissions come from electrical power generation and heat. So, naturally those are the places to look the hardest to find CO2 reductions.
One does that by finding ways of generating electricity and providing heat that don’t use fossil fuels to as great an extant as one is using currently, and also by trying to reduce demand.
We know, for example, that half of the world’s energy is used in buildings, and if we can design our buildings more efficiently, in terms of heat and light, we can reduce the energy that we need, and thus reduce emissions.
Finally, if you look at the remaining 20% of emissions that come from transportation, most of that is from oil. It’s pretty clear that we know how to make the transportation system much more efficient than we have at present. And that is really a question of political will, not so much a question of technology.
As we look out over the next 30 to 50 years, there are great challenges for the globe, and while economic and political solutions will play an important role in meeting them, technology is likely to play a central role if we are to deal with them effectively.
Salazar: Thank you for taking time to speak with me today.
Steve Koonin is chief scientist of BP, the world’s second largest independent oil company. BP refines and markets petroleum products in more than 100 countries and serves more than 13 million customers each day. As chief scientist, Koonin is responsible for BP’s long-range technology plans and activities, particularly those “beyond petroleum.” He also has purview over BP’s major university research programs around the world and provides technical advice to the company’s senior executives.
In 1975, he joined the faculty of Caltech, became a full professor in 1981, and served as Provost from 1995 to 2004. Koonin is a fellow of the American Physical Society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, as well as a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Trilateral Commission. He has served on numerous advisory bodies for the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the Department of Energy and its various national laboratories. His research interests have included theoretical nuclear, many-body, and computational physics, nuclear astrophysics, and global environmental science.
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