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Russian About Going Nowhere
Edward Tapamor, Peak Oil Passnotes
If we ever needed reminding of the problem of making forecasts about crude oil and products we only need think of three tiny letters, I, E and A. The International Energy Agency (IEA), so frowned upon in 2004 and 2005 for failing to foresee the sharp rise in demand, has this week decided that some of its previous predictions were in fact erroneous.
The IEA has decided that non-OPEC output will in fact be some 1.1 million barrels short of what it was previously predicting in 2007. That is a 50% reduction from its previous 2.2 million barrel increase. Now, you might think this is not such a big deal being that we consume around 84.5 million barrels per day. But the IEA only made this forecast last July. It is not like the IEA do not have access to reams of information most mere mortals would love to get their hands on, they have loads of it.
But in 2005 they also predicted a near 2 million barrel increase in non-OPEC output. Then over the course of the year they consistently revised the figure, downwards of course. By the end of 2005 they had decided that rather than 2 million barrels extra per day there was in fact, well, no barrels extra per day. ..
(9 Feb 2007)
Is it rude to ridicule the ridiculous? –LJ
Venezuela Tries to Attract More Oil Rigs, Halt Departures
Dow Jones Newswires via Rigzone
Faced with a declining rig fleet in a tight global market for oil services, Venezuela is preparing a fresh licensing round to attract new drilling equipment and renew contracts for those on the ground, industry executives say. But Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. is increasingly slow about paying its contractors and insists on paying in a local currency that is difficult to convert into dollars, dampening interest in projects with the state oil firm.
PdVSA is still looking to hire a rig for the offshore Mariscal Sucre gas project, where the company first hoped to start drilling in mid-2006. Meantime, foreign operators are neck-deep in a contract overhaul, delaying some work at privately run fields until at least the second half of the year.
Contrary to PdVSA’s intentions, industry watchers expect drilling activity to slow down this year, denting the country’s production capacity at a time of rising costs at the state firm. “I don’t think you’ll see a lot of new capital deployed down there by the operators, nor the service companies,” Halliburton (KRY) Chief Financial Officer Christopher Gaut said in a Thursday web cast. ..
PdVSA hopes to spawn a domestic oil services industry to avoid relying on foreign firms such as Schlumberger (SLB) and Baker Hughes (BHI), and is giving preference to local companies and those from politically allied nations, such as China.
Last August, PdVSA said it hired 27 new rigs from mainly domestic and Chinese companies, “breaking with the monopolistic practice of only contracting multinational firms,” said PdVSA in a statement at the time. Industry sources said many of the contracts from last year were for renewals, and a number of the vaunted domestic rig suppliers were unable to deliver due to mechanical issues. ..
(9 Feb 2007)
Shell commercial: No easy oil any more
Shell, YouTube
Because there’s no easy oil any more
people like Jepp spend every day inventing new technologies
like the snake well
to get the oil that was previously impossible to get
Jepp van Balahouyen works for Shell
(5 Jan 2007)
The spelling of the engineer’s name is just a wild guess. Hat tip: Bas at peakoil-dot-com. -BA
Oil Companies Discuss Energy Challenges
John Porretto, Associated Press via Magic Valley Times News
With dwindling oil supplies, pollution concerns and the ever-present threat of gas prices soaring again, talk of new and better ways to fuel our cars, heat and cool our homes, and power our factories has never been greater. What’s more, the conversation is emanating increasingly from a source that’s been surprisingly quiet until recently _ the oil companies themselves.
When some of the industry’s top executives gather in Houston next week to discuss global energy challenges, finding new and more effective ways to produce oil and gas _ as well as alternatives to fossil fuels _ will dominate the discussion.
And, as the year progresses, expect to see industry leaders _ including the chiefs of ConocoPhillips and Royal Dutch Shell PLC’s U.S. division _ speaking in cities across America in an unprecedented campaign to educate consumers on energy related issues and discuss topics such as ethanol and renewable fuels. It’s also an opportunity for the companies to polish their images.
…At CERA’s annual weeklong conference that begins Monday, dozens of the industry’s heaviest hitters _ the chairmen of Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. and a top OPEC official, among them _ will discuss topics such as the tricky balance of supply and demand and initiatives to develop new sources of energy.
(11 Feb 2007)
Exxon Mobil Warming Up To Global Climate Issue
Steven Mufson, Washington Post
When it comes to the issue of climate change, Exxon Mobil says it has been misunderstood.
“Many people want to stick us in a bucket that says we want to deny this,” said the company’s vice president for public affairs, Kenneth P. Cohen, during a conference call this week. “That is flat wrong.”
Cohen said that the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, long the leading corporate symbol of skepticism about global warming, has never denied the existence of climate change. He added that “the global ecosystem is showing signs of warming, particularly in polar areas” and “the appropriate debate isn’t on whether the climate is changing but rather should be on what we should be doing about it.”
The modest statement, coupled with the disclosure last year that the company is no longer funding a Washington think tank critical of climate change actions, is reshaping the oil giant’s role in congressional efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions.
While Cohen says that Exxon Mobil hasn’t changed its position, many people in the environmental and scientific communities say the company’s stance marks at least an evolution, if not an about-face.
(10 Feb 2007)
