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Environment
Stronger Hurricanes? Researchers Debate Whether Global Warming Will Make
Storms More Destructive
Richard Monastersky, Chronicle of Higher Education
When it came to global warming and hurricanes, Kerry A. Emanuel used to be a skeptic. In fact, as one of the foremost theorists who studies such storms, Mr. Emanuel helped write a paper last year dismissing the idea that climate change would make hurricanes significantly more dangerous.
That paper will soon be published in a meteorological journal. But Mr. Emanuel’s name will not be on it.
While looking at historical records, the atmospheric physicist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that the total power released by storms had drastically increased — more than doubling in the Atlantic Ocean in the past 30 years. The evidence was so overwhelming that he could not stand by his earlier statements.
“I wasn’t even looking for it,” says Mr. Emanuel. “The trend was just so big that it stood out like a sore thumb.”
He withdrew his name from the forthcoming paper that plays down global warming’s influence on hurricanes. Then he published a new study in Nature last month, proclaiming the opposite conclusion.
“I didn’t feel comfortable saying what we said a year ago,” he says. “I think I see a strong global-warming signal.”
That statement puts him at odds with many meteorologists, who have searched in vain for hints of such a signal in the damage records from past storms. And looking forward, the new evidence fits into a growing debate — argued loudly in the wake of Hurricane Katrina — about whether global warming will lead to more-destructive storms.
(8 September 2005)
Katrina Fuels Global Warming Storm
Alister Doyle, Reuters via Common Dreams
OSLO – Hurricane Katrina has spurred debate about global warming worldwide with some environmentalists sniping at President George W. Bush for pulling out of the main U.N. plan for braking climate change.
Experts agree it is impossible to say any one storm is caused by rising temperatures. Numbers of tropical cyclones like hurricanes worldwide are stable at about 90 a year although recent U.S. research shows they may be becoming more intense.
Still, the European Commission, the World Bank, some environmentalists, Australia’s Greens and even Sweden’s king said the disaster, feared to have killed thousands of people in the United States, could be a portent of worse to come.
(9 September 2005)
Global Catastrophes Set to Increase Unless We Change NOW
Mike Hudema, Common Dreams
…despite the strength of Katrina’s impact, it is only one of many natural disasters that have wreaked havoc in the past year. In the past twelve months, the world has experienced a record number of natural atrocities.
…While it is unclear whether global warming was a factor in Hurricane Katrina, it is certain that climate change will increase such natural catastrophes. As the earth heats up, we will experience longer droughts and heat waves, resulting in more wildfires. The weather will become more extreme, producing floods and longer, more intense hurricanes. A greater potential for heat-related and pest related illnesses and deaths will exist as new bugs travel northwards. There will be increased desertification and ensuing conflicts over water. Finally, a temperature increase will disrupt natural habitats, possibly driving many plant and animal species to extinction. An increase in the frequency and size of natural disasters will undeniably be one of the consequences of climate change.
Mike Hudema works at the human rights organization Global Exchange (www.globalexchange.org ) and is the author of “An Action a Day,” published by Between the Lines Press.
(8 September 2005)
‘York could be UK’s New Orleans’
Matthew Tempest, Guardian
The city of York could be Britain’s New Orleans if climate change weather patterns continue as predicted, the Green party warned tonight, as it launched its annual conference in Lancaster.
Delivering the opening speech of the four-day gathering – the first of the autumn season – Professor John Whitelegg, a Green councillor and academic said that York could become uninhabitable in the near future, whether or not action was taken immediately on climate change.
…Prof Whitelegg’s message set an apocalyptic tone for the conference, which will see speeches on the so-called peak oil theory of oil production, which holds that, whilst oil fields remain, the cost of retrieval will soon outweigh tenable commercial prices at the pump.
(8 September 2005)
Global warming called insurance peril
State regulators and scientists warn of huge losses from climate shifts
Gilbert Chan, Sacramento Bee
Consumers are increasingly paying a steep price for wildfires, hurricanes and other catastrophic weather as insurers grapple with a 17-fold increase in financial losses over the past three decades, according to a study released Thursday.
In the wake of the growing losses being racked up from Hurricane Katrina, researchers warned that global climate change could threaten the financial health of the insurance industry and pocketbooks of consumers.
At the same time, state regulators and institutional investors are urging the insurance industry to examine the financial risks posed by global warming.
(9 September 2005)
Ceres on Katrina, insurance, and weather-related risk
Dave Roberts, Gristmill
Ceres, the “national network of investment funds, environmental organizations and other public interest groups working to advance environmental stewardship on the part of businesses,” has just released a report on the enormous challenge to the insurance industry represented by escalating weather-related losses. You can read the executive summary here and the full report here ([3.6 MB] PDF). An excerpt…
(9 September 2005)
Global Warming Could Hit Indian Agriculture, Study Reveals
Palash Kumar, Reuters
NEW DELHI – Global warming will push temperatures in India up by 3-4 degrees Celsius by the turn of the century, hitting agriculture and infrastructure, a joint India-UK study said on Thursday.
Rainfall will increase substantially in many areas while diseases such as malaria will spread, the report entitled “Investigating the Impacts of Climate Change in India” said.
“The impact of climate change on agriculture could result in problems with food security and may threaten livelihood activities upon which much of the population depends,” said the report released by Indian Environment Minister A. Raja and British deputy minister for trade and investment Ian Pearson.
…The report’s release coincided with the visit of British Prime Minister Tony Blair for a European Union-India summit.
(9 September 2005)
The environment matters (commentary)
Dr. Claude Martin, WWF International via ENN
Many of us in the conservation world are concerned that the natural environment – as the fundamental provider of life on this planet – seems to have dropped off the international community’s radar screen in the lead up to the UN-hosted World Summit.
This is an alarming realization as natural resources and the environment are being degraded and destroyed at record pace. Most environmental indicators – from climate change to freshwater and forest habitat loss – have become markedly worse. Despite the multiplicity of international environmental agreements, many have become paralyzed by politics, bogged down in the process or even worse, ignored.
The UN’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) – a set of internationally-agreed upon targets to eradicate poverty and hunger, improve health, and ensure environmental sustainability by 2015 – led us to believe that they could correct a weakened multilateral system. But after years of touting the goals as a panacea for many of the world’s social and economic ills, most countries are now unlikely to meet their targets as promised.
Recognizing these shortcomings, world leaders attending the World Summit will meet to set a massive multi-billion policy direction and aid package for developing countries over the coming years.
Dr. Claude Martin is Director-General of WWF International, based in Gland, Switzerland.
(9 September 2005)
