Simon Ratcliffe

As we get closer to the peak in global oil production, we are likely to see greater pressures particularly on poorer communities but constantly moving up the income scale. The intensifying pressures are likely to open new fault lines in our society

How did South Africa come to this? Whereas we once had a huge surplus of generating capacity, now the entire country faces regular blackouts, and some of our key economic sectors are under threat. Mines have been forced to shut down as their electricity supplies cannot be guaranteed, while energy hungry aluminum smelters continue to operate so that we can have our beer dispensed in cans.

Most of South Africa’s cities experienced their growth during the course of the 20th century. In large part, our cities were structured through the lens of segregation and apartheid. The evolution of our cities is also intimately bound up with the prevalence of abundant cheap oil.

IN TWO years’ time the price of oil could reach $200 a barrel. Farfetched? Maybe. Although estimates of oil and gas reserves vary widely, geologists Anders Sivertsson, Kjell Aleklett and Colin Campbell, of Uppsala University in Sweden, are the latest in a growing group of experts who believe that oil supplies will peak by 2010, if not before, and gas soon after.