Robert L. Hirsch Ph.D.

With the exception of the French oil company Total, the International Oil Companies (IOCs) have denied concerns about the impending decline in world oil production, often called “Peak Oil.”

Some possible explanations for the IOC position are as follows…

Many people fail to properly differentiate between energy forms and related energy systems. One result is that they can be misled regarding solutions to such concerns as “the energy crisis,” “energy security,” or “dependence on foreign oil.” This not only leads to unrealistic thinking but poor public policy. Consider three major energy forms and their differentiation.

As we previously forecast, the decline in world oil production is likely to occur in the next 1-4 years, a year having passed since we forecast 2-5 years. Some believe that weak worldwide economic conditions will significantly extend the onset of decline. We believe that the delay will be essentially negligible.

Based on geology, many analysts have forecast the onset of the decline of world oil production in the next 2-5 years. Legitimate national interests, mismanagement, and political upheaval can only hasten that onset.

Critique of CERA’s study by the author of the “Hirsch report” on peak oil.

A framework is needed for planning the mitigation of oil shortages created by world oil production reaching a maximum and going into decline. Some argue that normal market evolution will be adequate to avoid shortages. We assume that will not be the case.