Dave Summers (“Heading Out”)

The turmoil in the Middle East shows little sign of ending, and the potential lack of enough cheap fuel for the population is a warning that the levels of unrest may continue and even get worse. There is, however, some hope for enough local supply in the near term to help with some of the indigenous problems. Consider, for example, Egypt, which has the largest population of the countries in its immediate vicinity.

There are developing stories that justify continued interest in peak oil, but the slow pace with which the stories unfold make it difficult to sustain interest.

There are many parts of the country where these interconnections and improvements to the infrastructure are still going on. As those changes occur, the increasing use of power-driven vehicles continues to rise, and with it the need for increased supply. The risk of exacerbating popular unrest if that change were to stop is just one reason why it is bound to continue, and with it China’s continued need for additional supplies of all forms of fossil fuels.

There is no evidence from the top three oil producers (Saudia Arabia, Russia and the U.S) that their production will be even close, in total, to current levels by the end of the decade.

Now there comes an Energy Study from Harvard which boldly states that this is rubbish – that by 2020, global production will be at 110.6 mbd and these concerns that most of us have at The Oil Drum (inter alia) are chimeras of the imagination.

It is therefore pertinent to begin with examining where the study (which was prepared with BP assistance) anticipates that the growth in supply will come from.

The dramatic story of oil drilling in Texas: “On January 10, [1901] at around 10:30 a.m. the Lucas Gusher at Spindletop blew. The oil spray, which could be seen for ten miles, was fully six inches across and rose to over 200 ft above the derrick . . . . Nine days and 800,000 barrels later, they cut the gusher off.”

At some point in the future, perhaps even that soon, politicians and Administrators are going to complain “but nobody told us!!” and rush to blame the industry yet again. But the truth is that there was a group that was keeping the records, and who could tell those with the responsibility to fix it that there was a problem. And the Administration just closed it down. We will regret that lack of information and the warning messages that it would have brought.