Energy

So, there you have it. Trump and his team have stumbled into a war they cannot win. If the war does not end soon, it will likely destroy the world economy for lack of energy supplies and plunge it into a deep, years-long depression, one from which it will be difficult to emerge.

As the current situation (March 2026) around the Strait of Hormuz continues to destabilise the global economy, it is timely to return to Alexander’s analysis outlining ‘the Disintegration of Empire’ (being Chapter Two of Entropia).

Financial markets so far have reflected the belief that the Iran war will be over soon and that commerce will return to normal. I explain why I think this belief is unwarranted and why President Trump’s latest announcement regarding bombing Iran’s power plants is economic suicide.

Oil price manipulation is taking many forms after the closure of one of the world’s major choke points for oil transport sent oil prices higher.

Hence, the severe restrictions in the flow of oil though the Strait of Hormuz, resulting from the recent US-Iranian attacks, may be seen as a stark rehearsal for the consequences of a severe shock in the global oil supply, as might be experienced from a “peak oil” crisis, with volatile price spikes and supply chain disruptions.

This is the paradox both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now navigating. The grey war they are waging — economically, culturally, through regional proxies — is a race to secure the post-oil future before the other does.